The Rose Garden and White House happenings: Listening to voters’ concerns
mtierney said:
@db….It is all about perception…I see MAGA as “Make America Great Again” .. a good thing.
but then there are MAGAts and, well, you can see the difference, right?
so you think America isn't great now? Why do you hate our country?
It all comes down to how you define "great". If concentration camps for undesirables and a guardsman on every corner checking your papers sounds "great", well that is what Trump is promising.
There's going to be a change in US / Netanyahu relations soon.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/08/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah
Gaza looks like Dresden after the terror bombing raids destroyed the city.
So, protesting genocide is genocide? That is some complicated doublethink.
I mean, if we're being honest, does anyone doubt that TOTR and her ilk would like to see at least a few of us in a concentration camp?
Who do you think he should/will choose?
How Trump Should Choose a Vice President
Running mates don’t matter much, but they should be prepared to fill the top office.
May 8, 2024
Last Saturday’s Republican National Committee event at Mar-a-Lago was a casting call. The role up for grabs? Donald Trump’s running mate. Committee event at Mar-a-Lago was a casting call.
As one would expect from the star of “The Apprentice,” Mr. Trump was the impresario. He called each prospective vice presidential candidate to the stage, offered compliments, and listened as each one serenaded him. Who he’ll pick is anyone’s guess. There are plenty of strategies floating around but only one that makes sense.
Mr. Trump is unlikely to make a quick decision. That’s wise. Suspense builds interest and keeps the hopefuls advancing their cause by doing all they can to help him. I’m betting he holds off announcing his decision until much closer to the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 15.
A lengthy process can expose weaknesses. Witness Gov. Kristi Noem’s stunning self-destruction. Bragging about shooting her puppy in a gravel pit ended her hopes of being selected.
Mr. Trump’s vice-presidential search is different from other recent candidates’ efforts. Prospective running mates haven’t received questionnaires or document requests. Instead, Team Trump is doing deep dives on prospects without directly engaging them. What is Mr. Trump looking for?
Some of his advisers want a running mate to win over targeted groups, such as black and Hispanic voters. These strategists are pushing former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott or Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Others are hoping the right vice-presidential candidate improves Mr. Trump’s appeal among swing voters. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and House GOP Conference Chairman Elise Stefanik might fit this bill.
Some running mates have been the ticket’s attack dog. Donald Trump Jr.apparently likes Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance for his ability to own the libs.
Some want to strengthen Mr. Trump’s outsider image. They argue for someone like Tucker Carlson, former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat, or biotech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy. Still others suggest picking someone with fundraising prowess, given President Biden’s big financial advantage.
In February Mr. Trump outlined his criteria at a Fox News town hall. He wanted someone who’d be an effective president if something happened to him. The running mate should “help . . . from the voter standpoint” and should agree with him, as Fox paraphrased, “on a wide range of issues.” Finally, Mr. Trump said, his pick should have “common sense.”
Really though, there’s one criterion that matters: whether Mr. Trump’s choice reinforces the voters’ perception that he would be a strong, effective president.
That’s the conclusion of political scientists Christopher Devine and Kyle Kopko, authors of the 2020 book “Do Running Mates Matter?” Their work isn’t for anyone allergic to math. They use “a multimethod approach comprising logistic regression analyses and structural equation models” with “vector autoregression” and “an adaptation of Lenz’s . . . three-wave test.” All this rigorous analysis of empirical data leads to a clear and concise point.
Vice-presidential running mates seldom directly convert voters, according to Messrs. Devine and Kopko. They rarely help carry a state that the ticket would otherwise lose. They have, at best, a minor and temporary influence on key voter groups. Whatever direct effect they have on the ballot is “limited” and generally lasts “for a few days” in a campaign.
The power of a vice presidential pick is what it says about the presidential candidate. Messrs. Devine and Kopko argue there’s “strong and consistent evidence” that running mates shape voters’ perceptions of the presidential candidate “across a wide range of attributes relating to leadership skills, trustworthiness, and competence.”
Ronald Reagan’s choosing his primary opponent, George H.W. Bush, strengthened the public’s belief that Reagan was a strong, confident leader. By contrast, Sen. John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin eroded the public’s confidence in his judgment.
This advice might push against Mr. Trump’s instincts, which lean toward the performative. But it would be a mistake to pick someone for demographic or outsider appeal—let alone as an attack dog, as if he needs one. If Mr. Trump wants evidence that Messrs. Devine and Kopko are right, he should consider his opponent’s 2020 choice, Kamala Harris. Mr. Biden still suffers from a dangerous lack of voter enthusiasm among blacks. There’s no state she puts in play. She’s why many swing voters might not support Mr. Biden despite concerns about Mr. Trump.
The winning strategy for Mr. Trump? Pick for vice president the person who would make the best president.
Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
Republicans should sort out the mess at the top of their ticket before they start worrying about the VP slot.
Barron is a Florida at large delegate for the Republican National Convention in Florida.
Trump might end up with DeSantis as vp …
Jaytee said:
Barron is a Florida at large delegate for the Republican National Convention in Florida.
That's bait, as the meme says.
mtierney said:
Who do you think he should/will choose?
Well, since it's Trump he will undoubtedly make the worst choice possible so my money is on Krazy Kristy Knome.
A vote for Trump is a vote against American democracy.
Top Republicans, led by Trump, refuse to commit to accept 2024 election results (WaPo)
"Others are hoping the right vice-presidential candidate improves Mr. Trump’s appeal among swing voters. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and House GOP Conference Chairman Elise Stefanik might fit this bill."
Elise Stefanik? To appeal to swing voters???
mjc said:
"Others are hoping the right vice-presidential candidate improves Mr. Trump’s appeal among swing voters. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and House GOP Conference Chairman Elise Stefanik might fit this bill."
Elise Stefanik? To appeal to swing voters???
Swinging between Kennedy and Trump?
Mtierney,
Can you think of any reasons why there might be growing support for the Palestinians?
@PVW — i will respond, but first, this issue…
Newsweek has this story on demands made by homeless immigrants to the Mayor of Denver. The folks involved said if the demands were met, they would get off the street. Reading them, I started to recognize that the “demands” should be part of any humane homeless shelter and getting people off streets would be a win-win. Maybe the cooking demands are over the top, but essentially meeting the needs for education, health, relocation and immigration services should be available. Bad Apples, of course, would be revealed and deported. The United States of America and the governors and mayors of our states and cities need to take control and leadership.
- The migrants should be allowed to "cook their own food with fresh, culturally appropriate ingredients," including rice, chicken, flour, tomatoes and onions, instead of being served premade meals. They also want to ensure people are not punished for bringing and eating food from outside the shelters.
- Have access to showers at all times and without time limits.
- Visits by medical professionals will occur on a regular basis, with referrals for specialty care made as needed.
- The group will receive the same housing support offered to others, and city officials will not "kick people out in 30 days without something stable established."
- A "clear" and "just" process for removing someone, including verbal, written and final warnings.
- Employment support, including work permit applications for those who qualify.
- Free consultations with an immigration lawyer, as well as ongoing legal support provided by the city through immigration clinics and transportation to court.
- Privacy for families in the shelter.
- No verbal, physical or mental abuse by shelter staff and no 24/7 monitoring by law enforcement.
- Transportation for children to and from school.
- No separation of families, regardless of whether those families have children.
- A meeting with the mayor and those involved in running the city's program to support migrants "to discuss further improvements."
- All shelter residents will be provided with a document signed by a city official in English and Spanish and containing the list of demands and a number to call to report violations.
Jon Ewing, a spokesman for Denver Human Services, told KDVR that the city is "just trying to get families to leave that camp and come inside."
mtierney said:
@dave…what say you?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/business/glory-to-hong-kong-court-ruling.html
I can't carry a tune, so I'm not affected. That song is considered a democracy anthem and if you don't know by now, China isn't a democracy. Perhaps late breaking news to you? So, no, I wouldn't sing it anywhere because I don't think HK is its own nation. It has always been a go-between vassal state / tariff-free trade port of either the British Empire or its new masters. This is the reality.
Meanwhile everyone in Hong Kong has access to excellent and close to free medical care and prescription drugs (there are private doctors and hospitals, too) and the public transit is clean and fast. Taxes are low and can be done in ten minutes online.
I know some locals who had the option to move to the UK take it and are now either returning or considering returning when their children are done with school. The reasons are simple: health care costs are increasing, they are encountering some difficulty integrating, and crime levels are uncomfortable compared to safe Hong Kong, where no thought is given to personal safety ever.
Jaytee said:
Barron is a Florida at large delegate for the Republican National Convention in Florida.
Trump might end up with DeSantis as vp …
President and VP must reside in different states, according to the Constitution.
dave said:
I can't carry a tune, so I'm not affected. That song is considered a democracy anthem and if you don't know by now, China isn't a democracy. Perhaps late breaking news to you? So, no, I wouldn't sing it anywhere because I don't think HK is its own nation. It has always been a go-between vassal state / tariff-free trade port of either the British Empire or its new masters. This is the reality.
Meanwhile everyone in Hong Kong has access to excellent and close to free medical care and prescription drugs (there are private doctors and hospitals, too) and the public transit is clean and fast. Taxes are low and can be done in ten minutes online.
I know some locals who had the option to move to the UK take it and are now either returning or considering returning when their children are done with school. The reasons are simple: health care costs are increasing, they are encountering some difficulty integrating, and crime levels are uncomfortable compared to safe Hong Kong, where no thought is given to personal safety ever.
Thanks for the response, Dave. I watched the way too short series Expats — don’t know if the series will have a second season. The American family returns to the USA, the father/husband stays in HK. The film camera work — especially the typhoon episode — and the aerial views of the area were breathtaking. But life, for anyone except the super-rich, and the international class, struck me as claustrophobic and desperate. And I do not think I would thrive under the control of China — especially at this point in time — but tradeoffs are a fact of life for everyone.
mtierney said:
dave said:
I can't carry a tune, so I'm not affected. That song is considered a democracy anthem and if you don't know by now, China isn't a democracy. Perhaps late breaking news to you? So, no, I wouldn't sing it anywhere because I don't think HK is its own nation. It has always been a go-between vassal state / tariff-free trade port of either the British Empire or its new masters. This is the reality.
Meanwhile everyone in Hong Kong has access to excellent and close to free medical care and prescription drugs (there are private doctors and hospitals, too) and the public transit is clean and fast. Taxes are low and can be done in ten minutes online.
I know some locals who had the option to move to the UK take it and are now either returning or considering returning when their children are done with school. The reasons are simple: health care costs are increasing, they are encountering some difficulty integrating, and crime levels are uncomfortable compared to safe Hong Kong, where no thought is given to personal safety ever.
Thanks for the response, Dave. I watched the way too short series Expats — don’t know if the series will have a second season. The American family returns to the USA, the father/husband stays in HK. The film camera work — especially the typhoon episode — and the aerial views of the area were breathtaking. But life, for anyone except the super-rich, and the international class, struck me as claustrophobic and desperate. And I do not think I would thrive under the control of China — especially at this point in time — but tradeoffs are a fact of life for everyone.
Hong Kong SAR is making a much better effort at expanding affordable housing than any of the British appointed governors ever had. While some bemoan no longer being a British subject, many see opportunity in being reunited with the mainland. Most locals realize they can still travel freely to many nations visa-free and pay lower income taxes than their mainland PRC counterparts. Not to mention that actual democracy in Hong Kong only existed when the last British governor (Patten) let it happen, so it wasn't an entrenched form of government here.
Moreover, economic apartheid existed in Hong Kong during most of Hong Kong's occupation. Expats worked in British hongs and locals in Chinese hongs. If a British married a local, he could give up any expectation of promotions. This likely ended some time ago, of course. Similarly, locals could not live in certain areas of Hong Kong Island despite their abillity to afford it. Markers on trails still exist showing these boundaries.
I will see if I can get Expats, as I'm curious about it. All I remember is at the time of shooting it most local citizens and expats being angered because Kidman got around the 3-day quarantine law then in place.
GoSlugs said:
mtierney said:
@PVW — i will respond, but first, this issue…
TOTR, who's sense of entitlement knows no bounds, sure does love to whine about other people's perceived sense of entitlement.
I'm pretty sure she meant tjohn, as his post asked her a question and mine didn't. I guess my handle is prominent in her mind; maybe on some level she understands what I'm saying about the Republican threat to American democracy and, try as she might, can't quite ignore or dismiss it?
Hate it when I absolutely cannot suss out an acronym to save my soul! But it must emanate from way under the hostas, and the deer have eaten mine already, so there is that!
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Hitler literally wanted to Make Germany Great Again (MGGA). At after 12 years of his 1,000 Year Reich Germany had been burnt to the ground and occupied by 4 armies. It took 43 years to even begin to reunite the country post MGGA.