TPP Dead. NAFTA being renegotiated...

Woot, what does that mean that in 20 yrs, Indian factory workers will make more....?

krugle said:

Woot, what does that mean that in 20 yrs, Indian factory workers will make more....?

Salaries in India urban areas for factory operators at Multi-national companies are typically 1/3 to 1/4 of US salaries. However, they are growing at 10% per year. At those compounding rates, India total compensation of $12,000 per year today would be equal to more than $80k in 20 years. In contrast, US compensation has barely grown with inflation of late (approx. 2% per year). At those growth rates, US Compensation of $48k today would be equal to about $72k in 20 years.

Is it really valid to assume that they will continue to grow at that rate? And what about currency effects?

projecting growth rates for anything 20 years into the future is kinda silly.

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

you're so cute.

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

However, government exists. Seems like you'd support something that would diminish its effects.

How do these free trade agreements diminish the effects of government? Have you ever tried to have something imported?

jimmurphy said:

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

However, government exists. Seems like you'd support something that would diminish its effects.

The funny thing is that you are an authoritarian through and through. You're just upset because you don't like the new king.

drummerboy said:

you're so cute.

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

have you ever imported something before and then after a trade agreement?

I'm pretty damn sure that a primary intent of pretty much every trade agreement ever agreed to includes the easing of import restrictions.

Why would any country agree to it otherwise?

terp said:

How do these free trade agreements diminish the effects of government? Have you ever tried to have something imported?

jimmurphy said:

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

However, government exists. Seems like you'd support something that would diminish its effects.

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

But that was the entire point of TPP, right? To extend a US-centric legal framework into east Asia so we have influence in writing the rulebook on trade and US companies are given advantageous access into large markets. Now we have no influence and Chinese firms can duplicate joint venture methods and IP and take big bites out of US business profits.

terp is still waiting for the Free Market Fairy to arrive.

dave said:

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

But that was the entire point of TPP, right? To extend a US-centric legal framework into east Asia so we have influence in writing the rulebook on trade and US companies are given advantageous access into large markets. Now we have no influence and Chinese firms can duplicate joint venture methods and IP and take big bites out of US business profits.

Yeah. I should be a realist like you. Freedom is ok as long as those I bow down to say its ok. DB can't wait to lick some boots and beg for freedom. After all, that's the proper order of things.

As we are learning on another thread, extra-judicial killings are A-OK with him as long as he likes the guy who orders them. American citizen? DB says he had it coming!

drummerboy said:

terp is still waiting for the Free Market Fairy to arrive.

dave said:

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

But that was the entire point of TPP, right? To extend a US-centric legal framework into east Asia so we have influence in writing the rulebook on trade and US companies are given advantageous access into large markets. Now we have no influence and Chinese firms can duplicate joint venture methods and IP and take big bites out of US business profits.

If it were that simple, the agreements would be that simple. It's just like our legislation. Everyone is trying to protect certain interests and gain specific advantages. You'd think free trade would be pretty simple. But, it's not.

dave said:

terp said:

The problem with these "free trade agreements" is that they require so much government. And since they require government when the people answer to the government instead of vice versa, they seem to require much secrecy as well.

Real Free Trade wouldn't require government.

But that was the entire point of TPP, right? To extend a US-centric legal framework into east Asia so we have influence in writing the rulebook on trade and US companies are given advantageous access into large markets. Now we have no influence and Chinese firms can duplicate joint venture methods and IP and take big bites out of US business profits.

jimmurphy said:

Is it really valid to assume that they will continue to grow at that rate? And what about currency effects?

Fair. Currencies tend to fluctuate and sometimes weaken where there is high inflation. The point is that there are more reasons than cost why companies look to India.

drummerboy said:

projecting growth rates for anything 20 years into the future is kinda silly.

Right. Why bother. Just because India has consistently grown significantly more than US on average since 1950.

terp said:

If it were that simple, the agreements would be that simple. It's just like our legislation. Everyone is trying to protect certain interests and gain specific advantages. You'd think free trade would be pretty simple. But, it's not.

This is true. Once humans and nations get involved, it gets complicated. They start acting all human-y. It's weird. I don't understand why they can't act like badly drawn fictional characters in bloated novels.

dave23 said:

This is true. Once humans and nations get involved, it gets complicated. They start acting all human-y. It's weird. I don't understand why they can't act like badly drawn fictional characters in bloated novels.

um, yeah, now that's a bit of a lie, doncha think?

terp said:

Yeah. I should be a realist like you. Freedom is ok as long as those I bow down to say its ok. DB can't wait to lick some boots and beg for freedom. After all, that's the proper order of things.

As we are learning on another thread, extra-judicial killings are A-OK with him as long as he likes the guy who orders them. American citizen? DB says he had it coming!

there's a difference between looking at the past and predicting the future.

Woot said:

drummerboy said:

projecting growth rates for anything 20 years into the future is kinda silly.

Right. Why bother. Just because India has consistently grown significantly more than US on average since 1950.

I really don't think it is. How is that a lie? I mean what other alternatives are there to this nebulous outcome you think is necessary?

drummerboy said:

um, yeah, now that's a bit of a lie, doncha think?

terp said:

Yeah. I should be a realist like you. Freedom is ok as long as those I bow down to say its ok. DB can't wait to lick some boots and beg for freedom. After all, that's the proper order of things.

As we are learning on another thread, extra-judicial killings are A-OK with him as long as he likes the guy who orders them. American citizen? DB says he had it coming!

terp said:

How do these free trade agreements diminish the effects of government? Have you ever tried to have something imported?

Yes. Recently. It was very simple.

Yeah. Me too.

Really. Do tell. Do tell.

Yes. Of course. My point still stands as a forecast (that is really not a very bold prediction). And more importantly, everyone still thinks of all of this escaping work as some simple function of our higher wages, which is a decreasing factor (and will continue to decrease as a factor).

drummerboy said:

there's a difference between looking at the past and predicting the future.

Woot said:

drummerboy said:

projecting growth rates for anything 20 years into the future is kinda silly.

Right. Why bother. Just because India has consistently grown significantly more than US on average since 1950.

Absolutely no doubt about that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/technology/personaltech/how-to-make-americas-robots-great-again.html

Globalization and the Internet will make wages seek a common level. We need to exploit that which we do well.

Trump's proposed 20% tax on Mexican imports is supposed to pay for the wall, but who pays that? Americans! And which Americans? Mostly Texans. Make that popcorn, folks. Things are about to get interesting.

dave said:

Trump's proposed 20% tax on Mexican imports is supposed to pay for the wall, but who pays that? Americans! And which Americans? Mostly Texans. Make that popcorn, folks. Things are about to get interesting.

Doesn't really *think* about the details of anything, does he?

I don't know why you think mostly Texans? Mexico exports things like cars and oil and electronics. What it does is exactly what I said in my earlier post - the cost is paid by the consumer.

dave said:

Trump's proposed 20% tax on Mexican imports is supposed to pay for the wall, but who pays that? Americans! And which Americans? Mostly Texans. Make that popcorn, folks. Things are about to get interesting.

Texas does more business w/Mexico than any other state, so it will feel a trade war more acutely.