Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine
mtierney said:
Links have to be opened, and then read. So many outlets have pay walls as well. Also, I felt a review on sanctions was timely, and hearing bipartisanship at work would be inspiring.
Except - there's been little that hasn't been bipartisan on this matter. So, I didn't get the enthusiasm for a bipartisan angle.
However, the Tucker angle:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/25/tucker-carlson-russia-ukraine-democrats
It'll be bipartisan until action actually happens. Then Republicans will immediately condemn whatever Biden did, even if it is something they themselves called for, and mtierney will post a cartoon that she probably misunderstood. Basically, what DS said.
Of course Vlad didn't do this with his buddy Donny in office. And will we hear the orangeman bragging that we would never be in this situation with him in office.
jamie said:
Of course Vlad didn't do this with his buddy Donny in office. And will we hear the orangeman bragging that we would never be in this situation with him in office.
That's because Trump's secret accounts would be several million fuller, and Ukraine's territory several million square kilometers smaller.
Vlad will be in office until at least 2036. The gradual Russian buildup could cause major divisions with the Ukraine over how to handle it, which will make the eventual takeover easier.
This is really good overview - from November:
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukraine-putin-s-unfinished-business-pub-85771
We're in the realm of diplomatic mind games. At least the media (at least Matt Lee) is paying more attention than it did during the early phases of the WMD and yellow cake stories.
dave said:
We're in the realm of diplomatic mind games. At least the media (at least Matt Lee) is paying more attention than it did during the early phases of the WMD and yellow cake stories.
I don't think there's any scenario where Ukraine invades Russia, or any NATO ally invades Russia. In the "WMDs in Iraq" analogy, the role of Bush is being played by Putin.
If before Bush's Iraq invasion, a European country came out with evidence that the Bush Administration was manufacturing a phony claim of WMDs (with intelligence they could not reveal), I suppose people who didn't want to challenge Bush's claim would endorse any journalist who challenged that claim that Bush was making it up.
They could at least say what the proof was - did they see the script - aware of people getting hired?
But if it's someone next to Vlad sharing the deets and the plan hasn't gotten much further. Then it could be trickier.
In regards to Russian propaganda - this is an interesting article:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
(Which isn't much different from the info out there from T**** in regards to the "stolen election".)
We need to play a long game with Russia and outlast Vlad. It isn't like he is immortal and Russia isn't China with an enormous and growing economy.
I would imagine that the Russian military has the ability to overrun Ukraine fairly quickly. How costly it will be, I can't guess. I would imagine that Ukraine will fight but will not persist with resistance such as we saw in Iraq once we occupied the country.
I don't see occupying Ukraine as doing much for Vlad's domestic standing and it certainly won't help Russia's economy.
Longer-term, Europe has to cut its dependence on Russian energy (global warming demands this anyway). Once that is done, Russia is becomes a prickly source of raw materials for China. I don't see this sitting to well with that portion of Russians who want a better relationship with Europe.
Oddly enough, I see Russia and the U.S. as having a bit in common right now - diminished great powers turning fascist or having strong fascist movements in an impossible attempt to get back to what they once were.
Well, today's statement is out of the ordinary. Now I'm thinking about possible Nato response options. And wondering even if the situation would spread beyond Ukrainian and Russian territory.
PeterWick said:
Well, today's statement is out of the ordinary. Now I'm thinking about possible Nato response options. And wondering even if the situation would spread beyond Ukrainian and Russian territory.
Russia is saying that the White House is in a state of hysteria. Over reacting by telling Americans in Ukraine to get out now. At this point I don’t know what or who to believe. Hopefully this whole situation can be diffused.
I see Russia (and Surovell) are blaming the US for escalating the rhetoric. Zero blame on the Russian troop buildup. I guess the buildup was just “normal” troop deployment?
jamie said:
I see Russia (and Surovell) are blaming the US for escalating the rhetoric. Zero blame on the Russian troop buildup. I guess the buildup was just “normal” troop deployment?
Whatever the merits of Russia's grievances (and they do have some), I don't see how one can claim they're not the aggressors here.
jamie said:
I see Russia (and Surovell) are blaming the US for escalating the rhetoric. Zero blame on the Russian troop buildup. I guess the buildup was just “normal” troop deployment?
What a surprise.
not.
jamie said:
I see Russia (and Surovell) are blaming the US for escalating the rhetoric. Zero blame on the Russian troop buildup. I guess the buildup was just “normal” troop deployment?
Our friend Mr. Surovell is parroting Bernie's nonsense on the Twitter. Would love to see Bernie in Kyiv, explaining that Ukrainians have to see things the way Putin sees them, and not be so selfish.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bernie-sanders-russia-ukraine-legitimate-concerns
All politics are local.
Putin's game is squarely aimed at Russians. He knows that Ukraine can never join NATO while there are unresolved conflicts. And he would know that NATO did not and does not have the means to mount an invasion of Russia. Granted, militaries will tend to look at capabilities and not intentions, but in the case of NATO, the militaries are not large enough, not properly trained and not rehearsed at working together.
I would guess that Putin's actions will be entirely based on local considerations.
Nobody wants a war. But if Putin thinks by overrunning Ukraine in a couple of days will make him the victor, he is mistaken. This is not 2014. The Ukrainian people will fight him like the afghan’s fought the Russian invasion. Long and protracted resistance will kill many Russian soldiers on the ground. Every volunteer is a hero there. They have been preparing to defend themselves for 8 years.
This is not about defending Russia from nato expansion, this is about the resources of the Ukraine. A country rich in uranium, titanium, manganese, iron, natural gas. Plus Ukraine produces enough food to feed half a billion people. Putin is playing a dangerous game with the west, and his baxide was thoroughly kissed by trump it probably now looks orange..he feels emboldened. Do you wonder why trumpenstein got rid of so many classified documents? And took home so many more?
I wonder if vlad has any interest in this https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/amp/
Jaytee said:
Nobody wants a war. But if Putin thinks by overrunning Ukraine in a couple of days will make him the victor, he is mistaken. This is not 2014. The Ukrainian people will fight him like the afghan’s fought the Russian invasion. Long and protracted resistance will kill many Russian soldiers on the ground. Every volunteer is a hero there. They have been preparing to defend themselves for 8 years.
This is not about defending Russia from nato expansion, this is about the resources of the Ukraine. A country rich in uranium, titanium, manganese, iron, natural gas. Plus Ukraine produces enough food to feed half a billion people. Putin is playing a dangerous game with the west, and his baxide was thoroughly kissed by trump it probably now looks orange..he feels emboldened. Do you wonder why trumpenstein got rid of so many classified documents? And took home so many more?
Why would Putin feel emboldened by his relations with a former U.S. president who left office more than a year ago?
And what do the Trump documents have to do with the Russia-ukraine showdown?
jamie said:
I wonder if vlad has any interest in this https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/amp/
I’m pretty sure he is.
Smedley said:
Why would Putin feel emboldened by his relations with a former U.S. president who left office more than a year ago?
And what do the Trump documents have to do with the Russia-ukraine showdown?
you missed all the gawking trumpenstein did whenever he was with vlad? You don’t know the orange clown got a fetish for strong, tough dictators? I am assuming you never even knew trump was going to build a massive beautiful fabulous resort on the Black Sea… and vlad was supposed to get one of the penthouse suites free of charge? No wonder he’s still upset about losing the election.
It’s the same question people ask about Afghanistan…
You forgot Stormy Daniels and "grab em by the...", as surely those blasts from the past are also relevant to the Feb. 13, 2022 situation in Ukraine.
Jaytee said:
jamie said:
I wonder if vlad has any interest in this https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/amp/
I’m pretty sure he is.
I wouldn't think this is a major motivation. Vlad is of that group of Russians who consider Ukraine to be part of Russia. And he wants Russia to be taken seriously on the world stage. And he does have some understandable concerns about NATO.
I think Vlad is seeing the vulnerability of Nord Stream 2.
Yes, Vlad wants to re-establish the Union. But he and his gas cronies would make a killing with a Ukraine takeover. Here's some of their issues over the years:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes
Controlling Ukraine will stabilize his supply line to Europe.
I've had the chance to talk with a couple of Ukrainians while this whole thing's been happening. It's in the context of work -- they're helping my team out via a third party contracting company -- so not super deep interactions or anything, and in general I don't like to bring up politics or other non-work related issues at work. From the little we've talked about it, though, what they say sounds a lot like what Pres. Zelensky's been saying, that they're not especially worried. Sample size of two, both young guys in their 20s in Kyiv, so take the small sample size and the invincibility of youth into account and make of it what you will.
If Russia would well and truly agree to Ukrainian territorial sovereignty (less the Crimea) and not try to prevent Ukraine from aligning economically with Europe, then agreeing to not pursue NATO membership would make sense, but that's quite an if.
In any case, there is no world in which Ukraine gets Crimea back. The Crimea was never historically part of Ukraine anyway.
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Links have to be opened, and then read. So many outlets have pay walls as well. Also, I felt a review on sanctions was timely, and hearing bipartisanship at work would be inspiring.