Is DeSantis worse than trump?

PVW said:

drummerboy said:

I'd be very surprised if Youngkin is a strong candidate. Too new to the scene. He'd really have to break through in some unique way.

To make it a bit clearer -- I think his "lane" is the non-never-Trump Trump alternative. I think his competition here is people like Chris Christie.

At the end of the day, though, I think the nominee will be Trump.

Yeah, that's probably right. Problem is, how many of those voters are moved to come out for the primaries?

And also yeah, I think at this moment, Trump is still the front-runner.

It'll be interesting though.

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

dave said:

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

Is that how it works? Do you need a majority/plurality of the House itself, or a majority of a party? Can't imagine that the Constitution says anything about parties.

Can't seem to find details on the question. The Constitution is pretty vague about it.

It would be quite the pisser to have Trump as speaker though.

I think that scenario is called "Democrats win everything in 2024 in historically enormous wave election"

The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers;and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

Doesn't say "from among its members", right? 

dave said:

The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers;and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

Doesn't say "from among its members", right? 

Not questioning that. Just wondering how many votes are needed to elect.

dave said:

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

To what point and purpose? It benefits the Republicans not a whit if Trump is Speaker. Do they try to impeach Joe and Kamala simultaneously?

mrincredible said:

dave said:

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

To what point and purpose? It benefits the Republicans not a whit if Trumpnis Speaker. Do they try to impeach Joe and Kamala simultaneously?

Point and purpose?

To own the libs!

mrincredible said:

dave said:

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

To what point and purpose? It benefits the Republicans not a whit if Trumpnis Speaker. Do they try to impeach Joe and Kamala simultaneously?

Sure.  "We impeached Biden" will be their platform in 2024.

drummerboy said:

dave said:

The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers;and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.

Doesn't say "from among its members", right? 

Not questioning that. Just wondering how many votes are needed to elect.

A majority.

dave said:

Sure.  "We impeached Biden" will be their platform in 2024.

Heh. They’ll probably vote to impeach three times so they can say he’s been impeached the most. 

ml1 said:

DeSantis is also stridently anti abortion. Thus the question of what Pence's "lane" would be. 

Would Pence's name recognition help him as well as sympathy for him being threatened by the mob?  I just think his persona would be more relatable than that of a politician from Florida to the Evangelicals. I know a few Trump supporters who are NJ/NY voters but they were not the Evangelical crowd nor the anti-abortion crowd so I think they would be fine with DeSantis but I considered that the Evangelicals would choose Pence. That said in the end the Rs will usually vote for their party no matter who the representative.

I just saw a clip of an interview of Pence being questioned about January 6. He appeared to be on the verge of tears and said it made him angry.  He certainly has that are of piety about him. Admittedly DeSantis is more Trumpy. He was even mean to Mickey.

I have no sympathy for Pence, after all the trauma trumpenstein put him through he still turned around and said he would vote for trumpenstein aga. He’s not honest, and that Bible under his armpit is not a very sturdy crutch. He’s just pushing his book now. 
The Republican primaries will be a spectacular cluster Fox.

Morganna said:

ml1 said:

DeSantis is also stridently anti abortion. Thus the question of what Pence's "lane" would be. 

Would Pence's name recognition help him as well as sympathy for him being threatened by the mob?  I just think his persona would be more relatable than that of a politician from Florida to the Evangelicals. I know a few Trump supporters who are NJ/NY voters but they were not the Evangelical crowd nor the anti-abortion crowd so I think they would be fine with DeSantis but I considered that the Evangelicals would choose Pence. That said in the end the Rs will usually vote for their party no matter who the representative.

I just saw a clip of an interview of Pence being questioned about January 6. He appeared to be on the verge of tears and said it made him angry.  He certainly has that are of piety about him. Admittedly DeSantis is more Trumpy. He was even mean to Mickey.

who really knows what will happen a year and a half? But it seems a little simplistic IMHO to say Pence will contend because he'll get evangelcals' support. They show time and time again that personal piety means nothing to them. They supported Trump and Herschel Walker. And outside of the evangelicals, Pence is going to have to thread a needle that might be impossible. The never Trumpers aren't likely to trust him, and the MAGAs certainly don't trust him after Jan. 6. So who is his constituency? Pious people who aren't MAGAs? That probably explains his low standing in the polls. His "lane" is pretty narrow.  But things can certainly change. The radical right in this country isn't particularly known for consistency in what kind of candidates they support, as long as they're outspoken enough in opposing the libs.

dave said:

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

Not all Republicans in the House are cultists.  Although, who knows, maybe given the results of the election, they would like to double down on a losing strategy of fealty to Trump.

Don't count out Tulsi! She may have a better lane than Pence. 

dave said:

Here's a (very unlikely) scenario coming up a lot sooner than 2024.   The next house speaker, according to the Constitution, does not have to be a member of the House.  If Trump gets a majority of votes from a majority Republican House, he gets Nancy's gavel unless McCarthy starts cutting deals with Dems.   

In New Jersey, in 1972, the Democrats had a slim majority in the State Assembly.  Because of Democratic infighting, a Republican was able to convince enough Democrats to join the GOP members to elect him as Speaker.  That Republican was Tom Kean Sr.

Tom Kean, Jr. knows this better than anyone else arriving in Washington for the new Congressional term.

Which leads to the question: Who will collude with the Democrats and just enough GOP members to pick the new Speaker?

[Edited to add] Bonus fact for Dave - the Democratic faction that switched to support Kean was led by Assemblyman and famous scuba diver David Friedland.

nohero said:

In New Jersey, in 1972, the Democrats had a slim majority in the State Assembly.  Because of Democratic infighting, a Republican was able to convince enough Democrats to join the GOP members to elect him as Speaker.  That Republican was Tom Kean Sr.

Tom Kean, Jr. knows this better than anyone else arriving in Washington for the new Congressional term.

Which leads to the question: Who will collude with the Democrats and just enough GOP members to pick the new Speaker?

[Edited to add] Bonus fact for Dave - the Democratic faction that switched to support Kean was led by Assemblyman and famous scuba diver David Friedland.

But would Trump accept a position that seems to require a lot more involvement day-to-day than watching TV?

jimmurphy said:

nohero said:

In New Jersey, in 1972, the Democrats had a slim majority in the State Assembly.  Because of Democratic infighting, a Republican was able to convince enough Democrats to join the GOP members to elect him as Speaker.  That Republican was Tom Kean Sr.

Tom Kean, Jr. knows this better than anyone else arriving in Washington for the new Congressional term.

Which leads to the question: Who will collude with the Democrats and just enough GOP members to pick the new Speaker?

[Edited to add] Bonus fact for Dave - the Democratic faction that switched to support Kean was led by Assemblyman and famous scuba diver David Friedland.

But would Trump accept a position that seems to require a lot more involvement day-to-day than watching TV?

I wasn't thinking that it would be Trump.  I was thinking more that someone in the House would exploit the divisions in the GOP.  Is there some "moderate" GOP-er who would take a chance on this?

Smedley said:

Pence is a smart, politically savvy guy 

Mike Pence is the Dr Oz of Mitt Romneys.

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

Pence is a smart, politically savvy guy with WH experience who can potentially bridge gap b/w establishment and MAGA crowd. In my book that's formidable.

I've also qualified my constructive comments re: Pence with the acknowledgement that he has no chance if DeSantis proves to be the same juggernaut on the national stage as he is in Florida - an important caveat that you ignore. But if RDS flames out for whatever reason(s), I'd put my money on Pence, because as I've been saying for a while now, I believe Trump is finished politically.

Speaking of money, I'll decline your wager, as I don't think gambling is authorized on MOL and I do not wish to expose its proprietors to a lawsuit from DraftKings or FanDuel. But I look forward to discussing further as we move down the road toward the nomination.  

meh. You're also the guy who harangued us for months that we MUST be very concerned about Biden's September 2021 approval rating because it meant a sure electoral wipeout for Democrats in the midterm.

What does Biden's approval rating have to do with Pence's chances in the GOP primary?

And more importantly, why are you so obsessed with the Biden approval rating topic from more than a year ago? I haven't brought it up in ages, but, you've cited it at least twice recently in random threads I wasn't even participating in, and now this non sequitur. 

Is there some point you believe you still need to make (other than "meh")?  

Pence has zero chance against Trump and/or DeSantis.

Smedley said:

What does Biden's approval rating have to do with Pence's chances in the GOP primary?

And more importantly, why are you so obsessed with the Biden approval rating topic from more than a year ago? I haven't brought it up in ages, but, you've cited it at least twice recently in random threads I wasn't even participating in, and now this non sequitur. 

Is there some point you believe you still need to make (other than "meh")?  

it speaks to the quality of your prognostications. And of course you aren't going to bring it up yourself. 

I'm imagining what fun it would be if Lindsey Graham decided to run again. He's got the anti-abortion crowd the Trumpies and the FOX megaphone. 

When he ran against Trump with 15 others he was in the 2nd tier debate.

I'll bet he secretly yearns for that spot. Or does he long for a VP spot on the Trump ticket?

Morganna said:

Would Pence's name recognition help him as well as sympathy for him being threatened by the mob?  I just think his persona would be more relatable than that of a politician from Florida to the Evangelicals. I know a few Trump supporters who are NJ/NY voters but they were not the Evangelical crowd nor the anti-abortion crowd so I think they would be fine with DeSantis but I considered that the Evangelicals would choose Pence. That said in the end the Rs will usually vote for their party no matter who the representative.

I just saw a clip of an interview of Pence being questioned about January 6. He appeared to be on the verge of tears and said it made him angry.  He certainly has that are of piety about him. Admittedly DeSantis is more Trumpy. He was even mean to Mickey.

Evangelicals are Trump's base. And we watched how they act and what they value during Trump's presidency. With some notable exceptions, they didn't act like a religiously-motivated group, but a cultural one, and one that prizes an aggressively confrontational stance against those who they feel culturally oppose them. Pence being threatened by the mob won't evoke sympathy, but rather derision for being weak.

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

What does Biden's approval rating have to do with Pence's chances in the GOP primary?

And more importantly, why are you so obsessed with the Biden approval rating topic from more than a year ago? I haven't brought it up in ages, but, you've cited it at least twice recently in random threads I wasn't even participating in, and now this non sequitur. 

Is there some point you believe you still need to make (other than "meh")?  

it speaks to the quality of your prognostications. And of course you aren't going to bring it up yourself. 

There was no prognostication. As I said Nov 13 on another thread: 

"I did/do believe Biden's approval rating was a concern for Democrats in that it held implications for the midterms among other things. I highly doubt I ever said "it was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems" or any such similar declaration/prediction - show what you got if I did, and I'll own it."

You've produced nothing to support your claim that I made a prediction on the midterms, other than just continuing to say I did. 

Yeah yeah, you'll say you don't wanna or don't have time or something. But if there was a gotcha opportunity, you'd find the time. 

Smedley said:

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

What does Biden's approval rating have to do with Pence's chances in the GOP primary?

And more importantly, why are you so obsessed with the Biden approval rating topic from more than a year ago? I haven't brought it up in ages, but, you've cited it at least twice recently in random threads I wasn't even participating in, and now this non sequitur. 

Is there some point you believe you still need to make (other than "meh")?  

it speaks to the quality of your prognostications. And of course you aren't going to bring it up yourself. 

There was no prognostication. As I said Nov 13 on another thread: 

"I did/do believe Biden's approval rating was a concern for Democrats in that it held implications for the midterms among other things. I highly doubt I ever said "it was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems" or any such similar declaration/prediction - show what you got if I did, and I'll own it."

You've produced nothing to support your claim that I made a prediction on the midterms, other than just continuing to say I did. 

Yeah yeah, you'll say you don't wanna or don't have time or something. But if there was a gotcha opportunity, you'd find the time. 

what should any of us have been concerned about, it not a disaster in the midterms? That Joe's feelings would be hurt by a low number?

DeSantis is the Viktor Orbán of US politics.

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

ml1 said:

Smedley said:

What does Biden's approval rating have to do with Pence's chances in the GOP primary?

And more importantly, why are you so obsessed with the Biden approval rating topic from more than a year ago? I haven't brought it up in ages, but, you've cited it at least twice recently in random threads I wasn't even participating in, and now this non sequitur. 

Is there some point you believe you still need to make (other than "meh")?  

it speaks to the quality of your prognostications. And of course you aren't going to bring it up yourself. 

There was no prognostication. As I said Nov 13 on another thread: 

"I did/do believe Biden's approval rating was a concern for Democrats in that it held implications for the midterms among other things. I highly doubt I ever said "it was going to lead to a midterm wipeout for Dems" or any such similar declaration/prediction - show what you got if I did, and I'll own it."

You've produced nothing to support your claim that I made a prediction on the midterms, other than just continuing to say I did. 

Yeah yeah, you'll say you don't wanna or don't have time or something. But if there was a gotcha opportunity, you'd find the time. 

what should any of us have been concerned about, it not a disaster in the midterms? That Joe's feelings would be hurt by a low number?

 Power to persuade, prospects for passing legislation, strength of 2024 GOP nominee(s) - stuff that's pretty central to a presidency in my view, and all borne out by research as previously posted. 

And, the midterms - which weren't too bad for Dems, but they did just lose the House which isn't exactly a trifle, so you may want to make your victory lap a quick one. Another poster recently opined that the Dems may have kept the house if Biden was stronger - there's no way of knowing this of course, but I think it's a plausible theory.

Add it all up and if I'm a supporter of a president, I want the president to have a high approval rating, and not just for optics. A supporter being apathetic about the number is rather peculiar in my opinion.  

Counterpoint -- Obama's approval took a hit after passing the ACA, and the Dems lost the house. I prefer the universe where that happened, as opposed to one where they did not pass the ACA or any other substantive legislation and had higher approval ratings.

To the extent that Biden's approval rating is being weighed down by inflation, supply chain issues, and lingering pandemic fatigue, I wish inflation were lower, supply chains were fully normal again, and the pandemic was definitively done. To the extent that Biden's approval rating is being weighed down by a combination of the fact that no Republicans support him and many independents are overly influenced by Fox News scaremongering, I don't particularly want Biden to change course to indulge conservative grievances.