Stealing an election in broad daylight

drummerboy said:

funny you should ask that

https://www.rstreet.org/2019/05/30/usps-pensions-vs-the-world-more-rules-worse-funding/

Maybe Floyd could really delve into the malpractice of those postal pension funds, because when he or she asks “Or would you rather they ... gamble on the market?” I’m considering “Yes” for an answer.


DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

funny you should ask that

https://www.rstreet.org/2019/05/30/usps-pensions-vs-the-world-more-rules-worse-funding/

Maybe Floyd could really delve into the malpractice of those postal pension funds, because when he or she asks “Or would you rather they ... gamble on the market?” I’m considering “Yes” for an answer.

Come on pal, you got caught. Don't go swimming naked when the tide goes out. Just admit you were wrong and it's OK.


more news about Mr. Conflict-of-interest DeJoy



drummerboy said:

more news about Mr. Conflict-of-interest DeJoy

 it's unbelievable that Biden isn't ahead 50 points in the polls.  Our country is badly, badly broken and we have our fellow citizens to blame.  Forty percent of the country apparently believes that no matter how dishonest, cruel, incompetent and corrupt Trump and his cabal are, there's nothing worse than voting for a Democrat.


basil said:

Come on pal, you got caught. Don't go swimming naked when the tide goes out. Just admit you were wrong and it's OK.

I don’t get it. When does ebb tide ever catch a swimmer unawares?

Another thing I don’t get: how a chart showing that other postal pension funds invest in equities does anything except affirm my earlier questions. Still open to other answers, though.


DaveSchmidt said:

basil said:

Come on pal, you got caught. Don't go swimming naked when the tide goes out. Just admit you were wrong and it's OK.

I don’t get it. When does ebb tide ever catch a swimmer unawares?

Another thing I don’t get: how a chart showing that other postal pension funds invest in equities does anything except affirm my earlier questions. Still open to other answers, though.

 I posted it to affirm. I think we're on the same side here.


drummerboy said:

 I posted it to affirm. I think we're on the same side here.

It was basil’s charm offensive that stumped me. 


DaveSchmidt said:

I don’t get it. When does ebb tide ever catch a swimmer unawares?

Another thing I don’t get: how a chart showing that other postal pension funds invest in equities does anything except affirm my earlier questions. Still open to other answers, though.

 my guess is basil confused your response with someone else's.  Otherwise I'm also baffled by his response.


ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

more news about Mr. Conflict-of-interest DeJoy

 it's unbelievable that Biden isn't ahead 50 points in the polls.  Our country is badly, badly broken and we have our fellow citizens to blame.  Forty percent of the country apparently believes that no matter how dishonest, cruel, incompetent and corrupt Trump and his cabal are, there's nothing worse than voting for a Democrat.

 I read an article about Lebanon in the NYT over the weekend:

Beirut’s Shiites Like the Idea of Change, but Like Hezbollah More

Most Lebanese agree that the sectarian system of government, in which 18 religious sects divvy up power, profits and patronage, is the root of the country’s dysfunction and corruption. Many believe it should be replaced.
But no sect wants to give up its piece of the pie. That maxim perhaps goes double for the Shiite parties, who represent the largest sect and control the biggest share of the current system. Hezbollah has been one of the strongest forces opposing anti-government protests, which began last fall over the economic crisis and were revitalized by the explosion, both of which, protesters contend, are the result of a failed government.

Even though the deep corruption and dysfunction led to a tragic, catastrophic explosion in Beirut, and even though everyone agrees this is a terrible problem that needs to change, important sections of society see that level of dysfunction and corruption as the lesser evil.

I think that dynamic is at play in our country too. White conservatives, accustomed to cultural hegemony, would rather get behind an incompetent kleptocrat than cede any more of their power. You can see this in the article linked to in the "Don't Call yourself a Christian" thread. The idea that Trump's supporters are Christian in any credal, value-based sense is absurd. The idea that they will gladly support Trump because he will defend their privileged position as a distinct cultural and demographic group, otoh, makes complete sense. For all the white conservative's whining about "identity politics," it turns out this is largely projection, protesting against the erosion of their own elevated privilege and willing to not just tolerate, but actively support, a shocking amount of corruption and dysfunction in exchange for the promise of reclaiming a supremacy they believe to be their right.


ml1 said:

DaveSchmidt said:

I don’t get it. When does ebb tide ever catch a swimmer unawares?

Another thing I don’t get: how a chart showing that other postal pension funds invest in equities does anything except affirm my earlier questions. Still open to other answers, though.

 my guess is basil confused your response with someone else's.  Otherwise I'm also baffled by his response.

 me too.


PVW said:

ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

more news about Mr. Conflict-of-interest DeJoy

 it's unbelievable that Biden isn't ahead 50 points in the polls.  Our country is badly, badly broken and we have our fellow citizens to blame.  Forty percent of the country apparently believes that no matter how dishonest, cruel, incompetent and corrupt Trump and his cabal are, there's nothing worse than voting for a Democrat.

 I read an article about Lebanon in the NYT over the weekend:

Beirut’s Shiites Like the Idea of Change, but Like Hezbollah More

Most Lebanese agree that the sectarian system of government, in which 18 religious sects divvy up power, profits and patronage, is the root of the country’s dysfunction and corruption. Many believe it should be replaced.
But no sect wants to give up its piece of the pie. That maxim perhaps goes double for the Shiite parties, who represent the largest sect and control the biggest share of the current system. Hezbollah has been one of the strongest forces opposing anti-government protests, which began last fall over the economic crisis and were revitalized by the explosion, both of which, protesters contend, are the result of a failed government.

Even though the deep corruption and dysfunction led to a tragic, catastrophic explosion in Beirut, and even though everyone agrees this is a terrible problem that needs to change, important sections of society see that level of dysfunction and corruption as the lesser evil.

I think that dynamic is at play in our country too. White conservatives, accustomed to cultural hegemony, would rather get behind an incompetent kleptocrat than cede any more of their power. You can see this in the article linked to in the "Don't Call yourself a Christian" thread. The idea that Trump's supporters are Christian in any credal, value-based sense is absurd. The idea that they will gladly support Trump because he will defend their privileged position as a distinct cultural and demographic group, otoh, makes complete sense. For all the white conservative's whining about "identity politics," it turns out this is largely projection, protesting against the erosion of their own elevated privilege and willing to not just tolerate, but actively support, a shocking amount of corruption and dysfunction in exchange for the promise of reclaiming a supremacy they believe to be their right.

 yup.  seems like a description of a broken country.


Worse than removing postal boxes is the removal and destruction of sorting machines.  These have been removed in blue regions primarily.  

Do not mail in your ballot if voting by mail.  Find a drop box


What Obama called knee capping is literally sabotage of the post office in areas that can cause democrats votes to be undercounted 




hoops said:

Worse than removing postal boxes is the removal and destruction of sorting machines.  These have been removed in blue regions primarily.  

Do not mail in your ballot if voting by mail.  Find a drop box


What Obama called knee capping is literally sabotage of the post office in areas that can cause democrats votes to be undercounted 



 wouldn't the % reduction be more informative than the absolute number?  I have no idea how many pieces of mail per hour are sorted in a big city.  My only assumption is that in a city like NY, it could be millions. 


here's a story from nj.com about what's happening in NJ. So far, it seems to be affecting southern  NJ only.

I have to say that I haven't noticed any problems with local delivery yet.

https://www.nj.com/news/2020/08/yes-your-mail-is-being-delayed-heres-whats-happening-inside-us-post-offices-in-nj.html



drummerboy said:

here's a story from nj.com about what's happening in NJ. So far, it seems to be affecting southern  NJ only.

I have to say that I haven't noticed any problems with local delivery yet.

https://www.nj.com/news/2020/08/yes-your-mail-is-being-delayed-heres-whats-happening-inside-us-post-offices-in-nj.html

 Good for you. Today I received important mail from my insurance company which they sent the same day I spoke with them on the phone: July 16th!


ml1 said:

wouldn't the % reduction be more informative than the absolute number?

Since what matters is the absolute number of mail-in votes, I’ll take absolute sorting capacity for an illustration of the problem in the context of the election.

If, for instance, a Maplewood race is decided by 10 votes and it turns out 30 votes in the defeated candidate’s stronghold district were lost and uncounted, it doesn’t matter what percentage of that district’s total votes the 30 were. (In that analogy, let’s say Maplewood is Ohio, the district is Columbus and the votes are mail-in ballots that were “lost” because of diminished sorting capacity. The idea being that the lower the capacity is, in absolute terms, the higher the total of uncounted ballots there will be, also in absolute terms.)


drummerboy said:

here's a story from nj.com about what's happening in NJ. So far, it seems to be affecting southern  NJ only.

I have to say that I haven't noticed any problems with local delivery yet.

https://www.nj.com/news/2020/08/yes-your-mail-is-being-delayed-heres-whats-happening-inside-us-post-offices-in-nj.html

 Well I am pleased that you haven't seen any problems in delivery.  I have not seen any delivery for  three days.  That never happens,  not even a piece of junk mail.  To quote my mother ' Something in the milk is not clean.'

  I am contacting both House and Senate members to lodge complaints. 


DaveSchmidt said:

ml1 said:

wouldn't the % reduction be more informative than the absolute number?

Since what matters is the absolute number of mail-in votes, I’ll take absolute sorting capacity for an illustration of the problem in the context of the election.

If, for instance, a Maplewood race is decided by 10 votes and it turns out 30 votes in the defeated candidate’s stronghold district were lost and uncounted, it doesn’t matter what percentage of that district’s total votes the 30 were. (In that analogy, let’s say Maplewood is Ohio, the district is Columbus and the votes are mail-in ballots that were “lost” because of diminished sorting capacity. The idea being that the lower the capacity is, in absolute terms, the higher the total of uncounted ballots there will be, also in absolute terms.)

 I think you are both right, depending on what you are trying to find out. Absolute makes the difference if the question is specifically around impact on something like an election. But if you are trying to figure out if certain areas are being targeted, you'll want some sense if of whether a reduction is disproportionate, or if it's a reduction fairly evenly across the board. For that % would be more helpful.

Though I'll note that even if it were a fair, across the board reduction, if you pair that with Republican encouragement of in-person voting and reducing the access to polling stations in Democratic areas the effect is still to disadvantage Democrats. IOW, combined with other Republican voter-suppression tactics, even if the postal slowdowns aren't specifically targeting Democratic areas, the overall effect on the vote is to disadvantage them.


DaveSchmidt said:

Since what matters is the absolute number of mail-in votes, I’ll take absolute sorting capacity for an illustration of the problem in the context of the election.

If, for instance, a Maplewood race is decided by 10 votes and it turns out 30 votes in the defeated candidate’s stronghold district were lost and uncounted, it doesn’t matter what percentage of that district’s total votes the 30 were. (In that analogy, let’s say Maplewood is Ohio, the district is Columbus and the votes are mail-in ballots that were “lost” because of diminished sorting capacity. The idea being that the lower the capacity is, in absolute terms, the higher the total of uncounted ballots there will be, also in absolute terms.)

 doesn't the % diminishment in capacity give you the ability to estimate how many votes might be lost?  If it's 1% diminished capacity to sort, it would lead to a different likely result than if it's 10%.  A 10% diminishment in sorting capacity would be really alarming, because it would compound itself (theoretically) each day.  A 0.1% diminishment or 0.5%, maybe not so much.  But given how long it's taking mail to reach us these day's I suspect it's a lot closer to 10% diminishment (or 20% or 30%)  than it is to 1%.


PVW said:

 I think you are both right, depending on what you are trying to find out. Absolute makes the difference if the question is specifically around impact on something like an election. But if you are trying to figure out if certain areas are being targeted, you'll want some sense if of whether a reduction is disproportionate, or if it's a reduction fairly evenly across the board. For that % would be more helpful.

Though I'll note that even if it were a fair, across the board reduction, if you pair that with Republican encouragement of in-person voting and reducing the access to polling stations in Democratic areas the effect is still to disadvantage Democrats. IOW, combined with other Republican voter-suppression tactics, even if the postal slowdowns aren't specifically targeting Democratic areas, the overall effect on the vote is to disadvantage them.

 this too. 


ml1 said:

 doesn't the % diminishment in capacity give you the ability to estimate how many votes might be lost?  If it's 1% diminished capacity to sort, it would lead to a different likely result than if it's 10%.  A 10% diminishment in sorting capacity would be really alarming, because it would compound itself (theoretically) each day.  A 0.1% diminishment or 0.5%, maybe not so much.  But given how long it's taking mail to reach us these day's I suspect it's a lot closer to 10% diminishment (or 20% or 30%)  than it is to 1%.

“Give you the ability to estimate how many votes might be lost” is not as direct as “the lower the capacity is, in absolute terms, the higher the total of uncounted ballots there will be, also in absolute terms.” I think more direct was the better way to illustrate election impact in that graphic (as “more direct” is usually better for a news graphic) and, since you asked, tried to explain why. You’re welcome, of course, to your own preference.


Arguing about % reduction of votes that haven’t occurred isn’t something I’m prepared to go into.  What isn’t up for arguing is that the machines that have been removed thus far are directly removed from democratic areas.  These are targeted to prevent democratic votes and targeted to affect all citizens in largely democratic areas from receiving their mail on time or at all. 


hoops said:

Arguing about % reduction of votes that haven’t occurred isn’t something I’m prepared to go into.  What isn’t up for arguing is that the machines that have been removed thus far are directly removed from democratic areas.  These are targeted to prevent democratic votes and targeted to affect all citizens in largely democratic areas from receiving their mail on time or at all. 

 What the hell are those guys arguing about?


drummerboy said:

 What the hell are those guys arguing about?

There’s no argument. Ml1 asked a question. PVW and I offered answers. Ml1 affirmed PVW’s. If mine was unsatisfactory, that’s fine.


DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

 What the hell are those guys arguing about?

There’s no argument. Ml1 asked a question. PVW and I offered answers. Ml1 affirmed PVW’s. If mine was unsatisfactory, that’s fine.

 I cheated and said that everyone was right. 2 + 2 can equal various things depending on exactly what the question is.


hoops said:

Arguing about % reduction of votes that haven’t occurred isn’t something I’m prepared to go into.  What isn’t up for arguing is that the machines that have been removed thus far are directly removed from democratic areas.  These are targeted to prevent democratic votes and targeted to affect all citizens in largely democratic areas from receiving their mail on time or at all. 

 I still think my initial question is an important one.  If NYC has a reduction of 500K per hour in its sorting capacity, isn't a very different impact depending on whether they usually sort five million pieces per mail per hour, or five billion pieces of mail per hour?  Seems pretty basic to me, that I'd rather know the % decrease in capacity over the absolute number.

And I'm not sure that the map makes your second point at all.  There are dots all over the country denoting capacity decreases.  Again, without knowing the % decrease represented by those dots in Nevada for instance, how do I know that the impact is going to tip blue states red?  

I fully buy that all of these machinations are almost certainly to try to screw Democratic voters.  I'm just saying that the map by itself isn't sufficient evidence to tell that story.


drummerboy said:

 What the hell are those guys arguing about?

 keep up dude.  It's simpler than the 2+2 thread.


DaveSchmidt said:

“Give you the ability to estimate how many votes might be lost” is not as direct as “the lower the capacity is, in absolute terms, the higher the total of uncounted ballots there will be, also in absolute terms.” I think more direct was the better way to illustrate election impact in that graphic (as “more direct” is usually better for a news graphic) and, since you asked, tried to explain why. You’re welcome, of course, to your own preference.

I think this is analogous to my point.  Mayor Garcetti of LA was on CNN yesterday, and Wolf Blitzer opened the interview by saying "your state now has the most COVID cases of any U.S. state."  Entirely true, but as the mayor pointed out, CA has by far the highest population, and its per capita case load is relatively low compared to other states.  Blitzer's raw number of 600K positive tests was certainly true, but did it really tell the story that he was implying?  I'd say his raw number instead of per capita was very misleading, even though 600K is direct and easy to understand.

And for the record, Wolf's reply was "Yes, California is a big state."  vampire


db says:  "here's a story from nj.com about what's happening in NJ. So far, it seems to be affecting southern NJ only.

"I have to say that I haven't noticed any problems with local delivery yet."

There are 2 recent threads here on MOL about ongoing delivery problems in NNJ. - ?

eta: but i'm glad your mail delivery is OK.  ours in Wis has been fine too so far, fwiw.


mjc said:

db says:  "here's a story from nj.com about what's happening in NJ. So far, it seems to be affecting southern NJ only.

"I have to say that I haven't noticed any problems with local delivery yet."

There are 2 recent threads here on MOL about ongoing delivery problems in NNJ. - ?

eta: but i'm glad your mail delivery is OK.  ours in Wis has been fine too so far, fwiw.

I don't know what to say other that here in W. Orange, my meds arrive on time, Amazon (when using USPS) arrives on time and as far as I know I'm not missing any important mail.

Also, there always seems to be an active thread about mail problems in SOMA. It's not like it's anything new.


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