Rainy week ahead

Sunday, March 31

Happy Easter to those who celebrate

We have a rainy week ahead, with some rain in the forecast Monday through Thursday. Heaviest rain likely on Wednesday. The models are all over the place on the details, with everything from possible thunderstorms to possibly snow Thursday morning some I am going to just leave this as it is for another 24 hours and hope things sort out a bit. At this point we see some heavy rain potential but not much flood potential.


Frustrating --- I volunteer at the Great Swamp Watershed Association property. It is on the east side of 278. The Great Swamp is on the west side. Great Swamp brings in heavy equipment to "pound" permanent foundations to support their boardwalks. 

Heavy equipment would damage G.S.W.A. property in a way that would take decades to repair and restore. That's why we don't use it.

So --- this means that after every heavy rain, volunteers are on the trails, replacing or repositioning boardwalk. Be haven't finished repairing damage from February, let alone last weekend's rain. We would like to catch up with damage repair so's we can begin new projects. 


THE POINT OF THIS --- there is a volunteer workday, 4/13 at 10 a.m. Tiger Lilly Lane, Morristown. Exit 32 off of 278.


Monday April 1, 2024

While the details remain variable, the general shape of the next few days is rain and cooler.

This morning, a shower is probable before afternoon clearing.

A stalled frontal boundary has set up along the coast which should pull several rain-containing low pressure systems along it over the Tues - Thurs time frame. This is likely to lead to several periods of moderate to heavy rain. Total rain over the four day period from Monday through Thursday could be 2.5 to 3 inches, with the heaviest rain likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds should pick up Tues night as well, reaching a steady 15 - 20 with gusts to 30mph. We could see minor flooding again Wednesday but in general the streams should be able to handle this. Any wintery mix or snow should be well north and west of the immediat area.

Friday should start a clearing and warming trend that should last through the weekend.


Tuesday April 2nd

Forecast is on track for a few rainy days

Today we expect moderate rain, with a chance of a couple of heavier periods. 1 - 1.5 inches.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, likely moderate to heavy rain all day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 1 - 2 inches of rain. Blustery, with steady winds near 20 mph and gusts into the mid 30mph range. Expect a Flood Advisory tomorrow as minor road and field ponding is possible.

Chance of light rain Thursday.


max_weisenfeld said:

Tuesday April 2nd

Forecast is on track for a few rainy days

Today we expect moderate rain, with a chance of a couple of heavier periods. 1 - 1.5 inches.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, likely moderate to heavy rain all day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 1 - 2 inches of rain. Blustery, with steady winds near 20 mph and gusts into the mid 30mph range. Expect a Flood Advisory tomorrow as minor road and field ponding is possible.

Chance of light rain Thursday.

Thanks Max !  


Are we way ahead of typical rainfall YTD?


Wed April 3

Flood Watch

Wind Advisory

The combination of a stalled frontal boundary, a stalled Great Lakes low pressure, and a coastal low this afternoon is going to make for a wet and windy day.

Rain is probable all day, moderate in the morning and heavy this afternoon and evening. Expect 1.5 to 3 inches additional rain today and tonight. With the higher totals this forecast, the NWS has issued a Flood Watch for small stream flooding and road and field ponding (text below). This afternoon might see a thunderstorm.

Wind today and tonight of 20 - 25mph with gusts in the high 40s.

Image below is this morning's Euro model showing simulated radar for 5 pm today. You can see the two low pressure areas over the eastern half of the US, and the heavy rain over the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Thursday, light rain likely, particularly in the afternoon.


Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103>108-NYZ068>070-032100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.240403T1500Z-240404T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western
Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
423 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-032030-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FA.A.0006.240403T2000Z-240404T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern
Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings
(Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
423 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following
  areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern
  Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and
  Western Union and southeast New York, including the following
  areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeast
  Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northwest Suffolk,
  Richmond (Staten Island), Southeast Suffolk, Southern Nassau,
  Southern Queens and Southwest Suffolk.

* WHEN...From 4 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - 2-3 additional inches of rain are forecast this morning
    through Thursday morning (higher totals possible) with a
    period of higher rainfall rain rates of 0.5-0.75"/hr possible
    this evening and early tonight which may lead to some areas
    of concern in the Flood Watch area.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

chalmers said:

yahooyahoo said:

Are we way ahead of typical rainfall YTD?

Oh yeah.

https://www.weather.gov/marfc/NJPrecipitationYTD

Wow! That's a big departure from the norm, but I guess there are no more norms...


My yard is marshland. I’m just asking for one good weekend to do yard work… is that too much to ask for? 


Do we have a total rainfall for this week?


Jaytee said:

My yard is marshland. I’m just asking for one good weekend to do yard work… is that too much to ask for? 

So far the forecast doesn't look too bad for this weekend. (fingers crossed)


Steve said:

Do we have a total rainfall for this week?

3.47 inches


Don't worry. If you missed last weeks rain, there's more coming this week.


What is the local eclipse forecast?


High clouds this afternoon may provide a filtered but adequate view

yahooyahoo said:

What is the local eclipse forecast?



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