NYT: Death Rate Rising for Middle-Aged White Americans
Jackson_Fusion said:
Brigit said:Maybe, maybe not. Digging a bit (just a bit, so usual caveats bred by laziness apply) it appears that adults with some college or a bachelors were either flat or slightly up in mortality.
Income inequality, lack of education, lack of health care, lack of job stability and security across most income brackets, globalization & rapid technological change, easy access to drugs and alcohol all play a role. I'm afraid the deaths we're seeing are just the tip of the iceberg.
Over the period covered a larger cohort of Americans generally either attended or complete college. So it appears that this is a shrinking cohort we are looking at here- 50 years ago, "white, no college" looked very different from how it looks today.
I'm not drawing any solid conclusion except to say, holding all else constant, this would be a cohort that would struggle more today than they did in decades past- we are more of a specialized economy now, and the job market looks favorably on education- even for good paying jobs that 30 years ago rarely required college- think cops. These would be people who are falling ever further behind and becoming less employable as the mix shifts but they stand still, while those who historically would have been in that cohort moved into the some college/college group.
Trying to not sound pejorative, but it remains true that those most impacted appear to be "those left".
I don't disagree regarding those most impacted, except to say that a lot of suicides go unreported and that this might skew the numbers a bit. A high school degree is not what it once was, but neither is a college degree. I do know that suicide is on the increase in the U.S. People simply have to jump through too many hoops and are losing hope. And our winner-takes-all economy is making things worse.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/health/suicide-rate-rises-sharply-in-us.html?_r=0
Brigit said:
Jackson_Fusion said:I don't disagree regarding those most impacted, except to say that a lot of suicides go unreported and that this might skew the numbers a bit. A high school degree is not what it once was, but neither is a college degree. I do know that suicide is on the increase in the U.S. People simply have to jump through too many hoops and are losing hope. And our winner-takes-all economy is making things worse.
Brigit said:Maybe, maybe not. Digging a bit (just a bit, so usual caveats bred by laziness apply) it appears that adults with some college or a bachelors were either flat or slightly up in mortality.
Income inequality, lack of education, lack of health care, lack of job stability and security across most income brackets, globalization & rapid technological change, easy access to drugs and alcohol all play a role. I'm afraid the deaths we're seeing are just the tip of the iceberg.
Over the period covered a larger cohort of Americans generally either attended or complete college. So it appears that this is a shrinking cohort we are looking at here- 50 years ago, "white, no college" looked very different from how it looks today.
I'm not drawing any solid conclusion except to say, holding all else constant, this would be a cohort that would struggle more today than they did in decades past- we are more of a specialized economy now, and the job market looks favorably on education- even for good paying jobs that 30 years ago rarely required college- think cops. These would be people who are falling ever further behind and becoming less employable as the mix shifts but they stand still, while those who historically would have been in that cohort moved into the some college/college group.
Trying to not sound pejorative, but it remains true that those most impacted appear to be "those left".
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/health/suicide-rate-rises-sharply-in-us.html?_r=0
My thoughts are more along the lines of who is left in the remainder rather than the value of the degrees themselves. If 100 individuals didn't go to college 50 years ago, today only 50 wouldn't have (making up the numbers for sake of illustration).
The 50 that did are individuals who would 50 years ago not needed college to succeed. Because they would today, and because higher education is generally now more accessible, they would have gone.
Those left? Impossible to generalize, but they would INCLUDE (all caps because I do not in any way want to suggest those not going to college are somehow automatically losers or doomed) those incapable of attending, either through mental health problems, criminal activity, substance abuse problems.... That cohort within the "no college" group would increase by virtue of their total proportion of the group increasing as the overall group contracted.
And of course, that group within a group would be even more disadvantaged, as the 50 who left pulled ever further away.
Exogenous issues like the availability of prescription opiates may have much to do with the lethality of some of the behaviors. I don't recall heroin ever being associated with distribution in middle America a few decades ago- maybe it was, but I'm ignorant of it. Crank and oxy? They make TV shows based on that theme today.
This is also worth reading. Even for those who are making above average salaries, the debt holes they live in afford little hope for the future.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/income-rich-asset-poor/413977/
ridski said:
This is also worth reading. Even for those who are making above average salaries, the debt holes they live in afford little hope for the future.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/income-rich-asset-poor/413977/
Hmm their view on debt vs assets seems odd- they want to discount housing assets yet focus on housing debt. I suppose a point can be made regarding liquidity, yet anyone who not upside down can access their home's equity if they choose (albeit at a cost).
I believe all 401(k) have to offer a loan provision, a relatively new requirement, so it's also simply not true that those assets cannot be accessed without penalty- though it remains a less than ideal method of getting some cash for emergencies, it's not nearly as dire as the article suggests. And of course $5000 into the 401(k) pre tax would mean $3500 or so that couldn't go into taxable savings, but that hardly seems a bad thing (unless you're operating off current and not future tax receipts, like the government does... Then deferred taxation and what I guess could be called "negative tax alpha" may be a concern).
Finally, the belief that productivity is all that is needed to pull an economy forward is just incorrect. You may produce all the iPads you like, as efficiently as you please. If no one buys them, you will not be producing for long.
What we could use for the indebted of course is some nice moderate inflation to inflate them out of their debt while pushing up the value of their homes and presumably the value of a goodly portion of their investments, provided wages keep pace- which domestically they should, given that domestic inflation historically is driven largely by wage growth and not input costs (consumer spending is 70% of the economy).
That said- unless you're Venezuelan there's no reason to go spending all your money the minute it hits your bank account.
jfburch said:
This table has some interesting (and sobering if one looks at the future) perspective.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5949a1.htm#tab1
Whole article:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5949a1.htm
And the main ACE study: http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/acestudy/
which has pretty powerfully shown the link between early experience and physical/mental health and health related behaviors.
Sadly, the U.S. has high rates of child abuse and neglect, which often lead to poor mental health and substance abuse later in life. Lack of parity and access to mental healthcare is still a huge problem in this country, with devastating outcomes for the most vulnerable among us.
jimmurphy said:
kthnry said:That would be great.
I'd like to see the Republican candidates discuss this article
One of the very few good ideas that I've heard from the Republicans is that employers should have to prove that no qualified American worker is available before issuing an H1b visa.
That mostly already happens. Plus, we should be doing more to attract global employers. We lose too many jobs and too much tax revenue to companies moving their HQ to lower Corporate tax Countries. And those non Americans who come here and take high skilled jobs pay tons of taxes and then leave. Thats a good problem.
I largely agree with Jackson Fusion. This is more about the under educated and our poor performance at preparing talent for the global economy. We educate students for jobs that dont exist. I'd also add that the world is catching up and passing us on education. China and India labour costs are rising dramatically. But the real issue is that their highly skilled labour is also rising dramatically. And the reality is that those US high school dropouts, high school grads and Community College grads can not compete for outstanding jobs on a global scale.
My company struggles to find great medical and scientist talent in the US. We can easily find Executive Assistants, security guards and people to work in the mail room. The problem is that in the long run, we can open labs in Bangalore or Hyderabad and hire great scientists by the truckload. Of course that drives more need for assistants, security and mail rooms there.
Under education is linked to the economy and ours has been in a free fall for quite some time. Many young people can't afford college; others are unable to finish their degrees because of financial pressures. It's a vicious circle.
Middle aged black men still have a substantially higher death rate. So perhaps the same factors that have played on blacks is finally playing on uneducated white men too. Poverty, lack of healthcare, unaffordable healthcare, low wages, poor diet and nutrition, substance abuse, etc. In other words, the right wing agenda to make everyone poor except the top 1% is working. Equality for the 99%! Not sure why it is "profoundly depressing" that middle aged uneducated white males are dropping dead at a higher rate? Their still doing way better than black folks.
tourne said:
Middle aged black men still have a substantially higher death rate. So perhaps the same factors that have played on blacks is finally playing on uneducated white men too. Poverty, lack of healthcare, unaffordable healthcare, low wages, poor diet and nutrition, substance abuse, etc. In other words, the right wing agenda to make everyone poor except the top 1% is working. Equality for the 99%! Not sure why it is "profoundly depressing" that middle aged uneducated white males are dropping dead at a higher rate? Their still doing way better than black folks.
"Not sure why it is 'profoundly depressing' that middle aged uneducated white males are dropping dead at a higher rate?"
Whoa. Wow.
No need to listen for dog whistles and code words there, ladies and gentlemen.
Brigit said:
Under education is linked to the economy and ours has been in a free fall for quite some time. Many young people can't afford college; others are unable to finish their degrees because of financial pressures. It's a vicious circle.
can you please show any data regarding declining college enrollment in the US?
Here is what i found after a 10 second search:
Enrollment in degree-granting institutions increased by 15 percent between 1992 and 2002. Between 2002 and 2012, enrollment increased 24 percent, from 16.6 million to 20.6 million. Much of the growth between 2002 and 2012 was in full-time enrollment; the number of full-time students rose 28 percent, while the number of part-time students rose 19 percent. During the same time period, the number of females rose 25 percent, while the number of males rose 24 percent. Enrollment increases can be affected both by population growth and by rising rates of enrollment. Between 2002 and 2012, the number of 18- to 24-year-olds increased from 28.5 million to 31.4 million, an increase of 10 percent, and the percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds enrolled in college rose from 37 percent in 2002 to 41 percent in 2012. In addition to enrollment in accredited 2-year colleges, 4-year colleges, and universities, about 504,000 students attended non-degree-granting, Title IV eligible, postsecondary institutions in fall 2012. These institutions are postsecondary institutions that do not award associate’s or higher degrees; they include, for example, institutions that offer only career and technical programs of less than 2 years’ duration.
In recent years, the percentage increase in the number of students age 25 and over who enrolled in degree-granting institutions has been similar to the percentage increase in the number of younger students, but the rate of increase is expected to be higher for students age 25 and over than for younger students in the coming years. Between 2000 and 2012, the enrollment of students under age 25 and the enrollment of those age 25 and over both increased by 35 percent. From 2012 to 2023, however, NCES projects the rate of increase for students under age 25 to be 12 percent, compared with 20 percent for students age 25 and over.
She didn't say college enrollment was declining. She said many young people can't afford college. The implication, I think, is that those who are left out of college are also at very high risk of being left out of the economy.
tourne said:
Middle aged black men still have a substantially higher death rate. So perhaps the same factors that have played on blacks is finally playing on uneducated white men too. Poverty, lack of healthcare, unaffordable healthcare, low wages, poor diet and nutrition, substance abuse, etc. In other words, the right wing agenda to make everyone poor except the top 1% is working. Equality for the 99%! Not sure why it is "profoundly depressing" that middle aged uneducated white males are dropping dead at a higher rate? Their still doing way better than black folks.
It looks like someone is happy with more dead white people. Haters gonna hate.
mjh said:
She didn't say college enrollment was declining. She said many young people can't afford college. The implication, I think, is that those who are left out of college are also at very high risk of being left out of the economy.
According to the data that I shared way more people are figuring out how to get to colleges. I am unclear how anyone would draw the parallel of decreasing affordability with increased death.
I still agree with Jackson. The dropouts and high school (only) grads are a vastly smaller population, with vastly lower employability. The fringe college graduates from weaker schools are competing for jobs that didnt require college degrees in the past. The castoffs from this system are doomed.
Oh and men are much more successful at suicide than women (e.g., guns vs overdoses).
Woot said:
mjh said:According to the data that I shared way more people are figuring out how to get to colleges. I am unclear how anyone would draw the parallel of decreasing affordability with increased death.
She didn't say college enrollment was declining. She said many young people can't afford college. The implication, I think, is that those who are left out of college are also at very high risk of being left out of the economy.
I still agree with Jackson. The dropouts and high school (only) grads are a vastly smaller population, with vastly lower employability. The fringe college graduates from weaker schools are competing for jobs that didnt require college degrees in the past. The castoffs from this system are doomed.
Oh and men are much more successful at suicide than women (e.g., guns vs overdoses).
Woot is going where I was trying to go. 50 years ago, the gap in lifestyle by educational attainment had to be narrower. As the cost for being uneducated increases, as the size of the cohorts shift, the gap between them also grows in tandem. In short, there are less of the under educated, and those who are left are even worse off in relative terms than those in the same cohort 50 years prior.
I wonder what the mix is between those who are generationally underclass in terms of income and those who grew up in higher classes who found themselves dropping below the class they were born into, as it became more necessary than for previous generations to attain education to maintain a middle class lifestyle- generalizing here, of course... This is all assuming that it has to do with money, or at least does largely.
Someone falling from one class to another may feel totally unmoored from the world they knew growing up. Middle age stock-taking and reflection may be particularly harsh in those cases.
Either way, they may end up in the same place but coming from different directions.
Or maybe it's just straight up opioids. I wonder what it looks like controlling for just that one factor.
Woot said:
Brigit said:can you please show any data regarding declining college enrollment in the US?
Under education is linked to the economy and ours has been in a free fall for quite some time. Many young people can't afford college; others are unable to finish their degrees because of financial pressures. It's a vicious circle.
There's a difference between enrollment and completion. Many kids aren't completing their degrees or are struggling to complete them in the midst of dismal job prospects. I also suspect that affordability is an issue for older adults and displaced workers who need additional job training. There are only so many times a person can be laid off, retrained, and forced to change careers before depression sets in.
http://thinkprogress.org/education/2012/03/28/453632/half-college-students-drop-out/
As far as suicides are concerned, if you look at the age group in question, many of these folks came of age just as manufacturing jobs started to disappear and college costs began to escalate (when Reagan lifted the cap on student loan borrowing in the mid-80's).
Jackson_Fusion said:
Woot said:Woot is going where I was trying to go. 50 years ago, the gap in lifestyle by educational attainment had to be narrower. As the cost for being uneducated increases, as the size of the cohorts shift, the gap between them also grows in tandem. In short, there are less of the under educated, and those who are left are even worse off in relative terms than those in the same cohort 50 years prior.
mjh said:According to the data that I shared way more people are figuring out how to get to colleges. I am unclear how anyone would draw the parallel of decreasing affordability with increased death.
She didn't say college enrollment was declining. She said many young people can't afford college. The implication, I think, is that those who are left out of college are also at very high risk of being left out of the economy.
I still agree with Jackson. The dropouts and high school (only) grads are a vastly smaller population, with vastly lower employability. The fringe college graduates from weaker schools are competing for jobs that didnt require college degrees in the past. The castoffs from this system are doomed.
Oh and men are much more successful at suicide than women (e.g., guns vs overdoses).
I wonder what the mix is between those who are generationally underclass in terms of income and those who grew up in higher classes who found themselves dropping below the class they were born into, as it became more necessary than for previous generations to attain education to maintain a middle class lifestyle- generalizing here, of course... This is all assuming that it has to do with money, or at least does largely.
Someone falling from one class to another may feel totally unmoored from the world they knew growing up. Middle age stock-taking and reflection may be particularly harsh in those cases.
Either way, they may end up in the same place but coming from different directions.
Or maybe it's just straight up opioids. I wonder what it looks like controlling for just that one factor.
Or maybe you two don't really know what you are talking about. Maybe the fact that the minimum wage is below what it was in 1968 and benefits have been systematically reduced and housing is inflated has something to do with 50 year old white guys with high school degrees kicking the bucket.
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This table has some interesting (and sobering if one looks at the future) perspective.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5949a1.htm#tab1
Whole article:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5949a1.htm
And the main ACE study: http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/acestudy/
which has pretty powerfully shown the link between early experience and physical/mental health and health related behaviors.