Trump approval ratings dipping
Oh no. Now I'm going to click on this link constantly. I was so addicted to polls before and after the election but they left me frustrated as they never dip into the low 30s. If they do I'll celebrate. The 40s are in his comfort zone.
I'm not optimistic. He'll do something stupid that people like or at least something inconsequential with good optics and the number will pop back up. Kavanaugh being confirmed will help. A lot of people actually think he is accomplishing something with North Korea and his tough talk on trade. Impeachment, resignation - not happening. Even if he loses in 2020 (not guaranteed), his administration is doing incredible damage and they are seating federal judges who will serve for decades. I wish I could be more optimistic.
A news story just came out saying that Trump was told of Russian tampering in January 2017. Since then, he has denied that there was tampering. Now that we know he knew, he looks worse. Of course, we haven't found the limit to how far the bar can go, and we keep thinking that today's scandal will surely do him in. But is this the murder he commits on 5th Avenue that he doesn't get away with?
What will it be when he's chained and frog-marched out of the office? 45%? That will still leave him 30 points higher than Congress.
Even if he does concede there was involvement (and he's yet to concede that Putin personally was involved), his narrative is still that Obama could have done more to stop it, it didn't affect the election and that he wasn't involved (no collusion) - and he is not going to waver from any of that. This is yet another story that's going to keep being told, and evolve, with no real detriment to Trump.
Heard 3 things that caught my attention this AM and gave me hope that his numbers could drop: falling wages, rising health care and one of my favorites the new trillion dollar debt.
Perhaps the biggest determinant of Trump's chances in 2020 is who he runs against. This week Rasmussen reported 73% of Democrats want a "fresh face" as the nominee.
But for now at least some of the usual tired names are up top on the contenders list -- Sanders, Warren, Biden.
So something has to give. Democratic debates should be interesting, to say the least, in terms of who emerges from the pack. I expect 10-12 on stage and another handful at the kids' table debate, like the GOP was in 2016 (and the Democrats should have been).
Morganna said:
Heard 3 things that caught my attention this AM and gave me hope that his numbers could drop: falling wages, rising health care and one of my favorites the new trillion dollar debt.
Pretty sure they would just spin that as it being the Democrats fault for being obstructionist.
Smedley said:
Perhaps the biggest determinant of Trump's chances in 2020 is who he runs against. This week Rasmussen reported 73% of Democrats want a "fresh face" as the nominee.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/july_2018/73_of_democrats_want_a_fresh_face_as_2020_nominee
But for now at least some of the usual tired names are up top on the contenders list -- Sanders, Warren, Biden.
So something has to give. Democratic debates should be interesting, to say the least, in terms of who emerges from the pack. I expect 10-12 on stage and another handful at the kids' table debate, like the GOP was in 2016 (and the Democrats should have been).
Looks like Gov. Bullock of Montana is interested. He's the new chairman of the Governor's Association. He was on MSNBC last night and this AM. As I follow the House and the Senate, I always pick a few favorites but the governors always take me by surprise.
jeffl said:
Even Rasmussen has his approval rating 10 points below his disapproval rating.
Long way to go.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
The average has him at 43%. That's more than comfortable for him. He can combine that with the expected efforts from the phony "liberals" who are planning on telling us that the Democrats are just as bad, that the nominee is just Hilary 2.0, and that it doesn't matter if he gets re-elected.
A combination of support for him, and discouraging of votes for his Democratic opponent will be what he's counting on, just like in 2016.
nohero said:
jeffl said:The average has him at 43%. That's more than comfortable for him. He can combine that with the expected efforts from the phony "liberals" who are planning on telling us that the Democrats are just as bad, that the nominee is just Hilary 2.0, and that it doesn't matter if he gets re-elected.
Even Rasmussen has his approval rating 10 points below his disapproval rating.
Long way to go.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
A combination of support for him, and discouraging of votes for his Democratic opponent will be what he's counting on, just like in 2016.
In the late 60's those of us who were opposed to US participation in the Vietnam war had a few problems. First was Lyndon Johnson who seemed to have immense popularity. However in time
mass demonstrations, jailing and the sons of the middle class coming home in body bags soured Johnson to the point of deciding he would not run for reelection.
We made mistakes. Some in our attitudes and etiquette, some in our strategy.
We tried to educate............I hated that frigging mimeograph machine. But we did not reach out enough
We shouted slogans at each other and only rarely had discussions, in small groups with our ideological opponents.
The same is happening here. Those opposed to all things Trump are preaching to the choir.
But the choir will pull the same lever when the time comes.
It is the George Wallace voter, now a generation older, who stood next to me in Military Park in Newark who needs to be convinced. Yes old carrot top lost the popular vote but he garnered
millions of votes from good hardworking folks. These folks fear the same as millions before them.
They fear the foreigner who will either take their job or mug them. They fear their job being exported over seas. They are looking for simple answer to complex problems. And in a lot of ways
they are no different than you and I. There is the challenge...........reach out to them . Don't imagine yourself more intelligent and don't criticize. Respect them and communicate. Isn't that what MOL is all about?
author said:In the late 60's those of us who were opposed to US participation in the Vietnam war had a few problems. First was Lyndon Johnson who seemed to have immense popularity. However in time
mass demonstrations, jailing and the sons of the middle class coming home in body bags soured Johnson to the point of deciding he would not run for reelection.
We made mistakes. Some in our attitudes and etiquette, some in our strategy.
We tried to educate............I hated that frigging mimeograph machine. But we did not reach out enough
We shouted slogans at each other and only rarely had discussions, in small groups with our ideological opponents.
The same is happening here. Those opposed to all things Trump are preaching to the choir.
But the choir will pull the same lever when the time comes.
It is the George Wallace voter, now a generation older, who stood next to me in Military Park in Newark who needs to be convinced. Yes old carrot top lost the popular vote but he garnered
millions of votes from good hardworking folks. These folks fear the same as millions before them.
They fear the foreigner who will either take their job or mug them. They fear their job being exported over seas. They are looking for simple answer to complex problems. And in a lot of ways
they are no different than you and I. There is the challenge...........reach out to them . Don't imagine yourself more intelligent and don't criticize. Respect them and communicate. Isn't that what MOL is all about?
As long as they have those fears, and vote those fears, reaching them is a distant hope.
There were, and are, a lot of voters who were discouraged from voting. Getting them back into the voting booth is a practical goal, which can be achieved if the 2016 lies and distortions aren't repeated.
I’m confident that the Democrats will blow it by calling for the abolition of ICE or other equally stupid things.
tjohn said:
I’m confident that the Democrats will blow it by calling for the abolition of ICE or other equally stupid things.
there are a lot of members of ICE calling for the abolition of ICE.
You say abolish ICE and I say you want to open our borders completely to a flood of immigrants. That’s bad politics. The problem isn’t ICE, it the political leadership directing ICE.
Maybe the American voters are too stupid to understand that abolishing ICE doesn't mean any of those things. It means separating the functions of law enforcement from immigration enforcement. Just as it was for decades before the formation of ICE.
either way, the voters who care that much about preserving ICE aren't likely to be Democratic voters anyway.
Yes, the focus of the language should be about creating a new, more effective and humane agency, not about discarding one altogether.
ml1 said:
either way, the voters who care that much about preserving ICE aren't likely to be Democratic voters anyway.
I disagree. This can be played to fears that melt white snowflakes and turn them into reactionary voters.
ml1 said:
Maybe the American voters are too stupid to understand that abolishing ICE doesn't mean any of those things. It means separating the functions of law enforcement from immigration enforcement. Just as it was for decades before the formation of ICE.
either way, the voters who care that much about preserving ICE aren't likely to be Democratic voters anyway.
Most voters absorb sound bytes. I’m sure there are a lot of voters Democrats need who support controlling immigration and don’t want to hear that Democrats want to abolish ICE and open our borders.
there is no doubt that the Democratic Party needs to get a lot better at creating messages and staying disciplined. The GOP runs on all sorts of deeply, deeply unpopular ideas and still wins elections. And then they govern and do things that are unpopular with independents, like trying to repeal ACA or passing a tax cut for rich people. And yet they win elections. Because they hammer their slogans into people's brains for years and years. "Abolish ICE" is a terrible slogan for sure. But there's got to be a way to come up with a slogan for a more humane and effective way of enforcing immigration law. And that would appeal to independent voters horrified by what they are seeing from ICE.
No matter what you believe, these stats are remarkable. How can people viewing the same series of events react in such startlingly different ways?
<<
Fifty-five percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump's handling of the summit, including 83% of Democrats and 53% of independents.
Just 21% of Republicans disapprove -- with 68% of Republicans saying the approve of how Trump dealt with the meeting.
Overall, 32% approve of the President's handling of the summit -- with 8% of Democrats and 29% of independents saying so.
>>
unicorn33 said:
No matter what you believe, these stats are remarkable. How can people viewing the same series of events react in such startlingly different ways?
<<
Fifty-five percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump's handling of the summit, including 83% of Democrats and 53% of independents.
Just 21% of Republicans disapprove -- with 68% of Republicans saying the approve of how Trump dealt with the meeting.
Overall, 32% approve of the President's handling of the summit -- with 8% of Democrats and 29% of independents saying so.
>>
I was gonna post this too. It's just remarkable that his support among R's is so high. They've really jumped the shark on Trump - they're pretty much just a personality cult at this point.
tjohn said:
You say abolish ICE and I say you want to open our borders completely to a flood of immigrants. That’s bad politics. The problem isn’t ICE, it the political leadership directing ICE.
Actually, I'd say it's education. CBP "protects" the borders. https://help.cbp.gov/app/answers/detail/a_id/1040/~/difference-between-u.s.-customs-and-border-protection-%28cbp%29%2C-u.s.-citizenship
it’s incredible to me how high his approval ratings are even if they’ve dipped
ridski said:
Perhaps they should Repeal and Replace ICE.
That's what the Right seems to want to do with the FBI.
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Even Rasmussen has his approval rating 10 points below his disapproval rating.
Long way to go.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html