The mass shooting today.

PVW said:

Here's how the conversation about violent crime goes in the US:

A: "I'm concerned about violent crime. What can we do?"

B: "Well, the obvious answer would be to get rid of all those guns."

A:  "But guns don't kill, people do.  Besides, it's really not the right time to discuss getting rid of guns.  People are in mourning.  Don't be so insensitive"

Fixed that for you.


RTrent said:

I grew up in NYC during the 70's and 80's. I felt safer then than now. So do my acquaintances who also lived that era.

Then crime was less random. You knew to keep out of high crime areas like the drug trade or the sex trade and not deal in risky behavior.  Then you didn't hear about people being pushed onto subway tracks.

Now its more random. People minding their business getting pushed onto tracks, bopped on the head or just shot and knifed.

Crime stats are manipulated. NYPD's Compstat serves a purpose but also motivates local police commanders into downgrading crimes. Its bad for your command career when precinct stats go up.

Years ago there was a to do on a woman who was molested on the subway. She went to the precinct to complain whereupon the officer at the desk refused to take her report. It was reported in the newspapers and the officer was "disciplined." What wasn't reported was that desk officers are told to "minimize" crime.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2012/09/nypd-accused-of-downgrading-to-keep-crime-rate-low.html

Also, many more, than previously no longer report when they are victimized by crime either because they are illegal or because of "why bother."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2012/09/nypd-accused-of-downgrading-to-keep-crime-rate-low.html

I can't tell you to feel safe if you don't. But I for sure felt a lot less safe in the city in the early '90s than I do now. And the stats back it up. With regard to the stats, since you seem to think NYPD is gaming the stats, do you think the entire country's crime stats are bunk? And do you think the stats were accurate in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but phony now?


sbenois said:

Fixed that for you.

Was PVW’s comment broken?


Our national conversation on gun violence is broken enough that there's room for plenty of variations on pointing out how broken it is.



personally I find the ideological reason for this massacre even more frightening than the gun violence aspect of it.


ml1 said:

I can't tell you to feel safe if you don't. But I for sure felt a lot less safe in the city in the early '90s than I do now. And the stats back it up. With regard to the stats, since you seem to think NYPD is gaming the stats, do you think the entire country's crime stats are bunk? And do you think the stats were accurate in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but phony now?

Could also be being younger I then felt "invulnerable."

Compstat did not exist in the 70's and 80's. Compstat was very useful when Jack Maple ran the show. It was used to identify high crime spurts leading to the reallocation of resources.

Now its used as a blame game. Instead of allocating additional resources to a precinct or district (because we don't have any to allocate) its now a screaming session at the headquarters Compstat meetings against any commander who "allowed" a crime spurt. Obviously, he failed.

So, what do smart or ambitious commanders do? They attempt to minimize their stats. Originally, caught commanders were punished. Now its, don't do it again, wink, nudge because the political leadership likes low stats. So now, maybe the real crime is being stupid enough let a crime spurt show in your district or precinct.


RTrent said:

Could also be being younger I then felt "invulnerable."

Compstat did not exist in the 70's and 80's. Compstat was very useful when Jack Maple ran the show. It was used to identify high crime spurts leading to the reallocation of resources.

Now its used as a blame game. Instead of allocating additional resources to a precinct or district (because we don't have any to allocate) its now a screaming session at the headquarters Compstat meetings against any commander who "allowed" a crime spurt. Obviously, he failed.

So, what do smart or ambitious commanders do? They attempt to minimize their stats. Originally, caught commanders were punished. Now its, don't do it again, wink, nudge because the political leadership likes low stats. So now, maybe the real crime is being stupid enough let a crime spurt show in your district or precinct.

do you really and truly think crime is worse in NYC and nationally than it was in the 70s and 80s?


ml1 said:

do you really and truly think crime is worse in NYC and nationally than it was in the 70s and 80s?

Violent crime in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s wasn’t just high, it was way high. An extreme comparison probably goes only so far as a persuasive counterpoint to concerns that downward trends have stopped or may even be reversing.


Without distracting from the statistics discussion, and not dismissing personal experiences, just before the shootings I’d happened to watch this with a neighbour. (We then discussed similar kinds of things from here)

The original channel that Ian is reacting to is eye-opening for me, especially the non-health parts. I’m also sorry about the ads. Reading the comments from around the world is interesting.

Running zig-zag across a road because a car backfires, or a balloon pops isn’t normal city behaviour in most places, nor is having to carry pepper spray etc in case you’re threatened as you’re walking… 


DaveSchmidt said:

Violent crime in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s wasn’t just high, it was way high. An extreme comparison probably goes only so far as a persuasive counterpoint to concerns that downward trends have stopped or may even be reversing.

RTrent was writing about feeling safer back in those days. So my question was directly relevant to a previous comment. 

Of course people should pay attention to whether crime rates are increasing. But my recent comments were prompted by a question of whether people should be too afraid of violence to get out of bed each day. I think we can all agree we're not at that point. Particularly for anyone who remembers what really high crime rates were like. 


FWIW: There are NJ-specific crime gun statistics posted monthly: 

https://nj.gov/njsp/njgunstat/index.shtml

It includes statistics like:

  • Crime guns recovered by county (Essex county tends to have the most each month)
  • Types of guns recovered
  • Shooting-Murder Victims; and Shooting-Hit Victims (numbers and percentages)

sprout said:

FWIW: There are NJ-specific crime gun statistics posted monthly: 

https://nj.gov/njsp/njgunstat/index.shtml

It includes statistics like:

  • Crime guns recovered by county (Essex county tends to have the most each month)
  • Types of guns recovered
  • Shooting-Murder Victims; and Shooting-Hit Victims (numbers and percentages)

and these counts are harder to intentionally underreport. People hit by bullets tend to show up in hospitals or morgues.



14 children dead and 1 teacher as of 5pm today.


Plus the shooter, according to our media. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/texas-school-shooting-robb-elementary/101096884

He was 18 - I just don’t understand how a young can be so filled with hate and bitterness to want to just blast everyone in sight. And to do so, they actually act normally first to get somewhere then switch personas to blast away… 

ETA: BBC says 15, I haven’t read yet so that might mean ‘ plus shooter’. 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61573377


Words kind of fail me. That almost ten years have passed and nothing has changed is intolerable.


Very smart to not put the date in the thread title.   Generic is good since we have at least one a day.


marksierra said:

I'll just post this here.

But we have freedom, Mark. Just like we have the freedom to have more deaths from Covid-19, etc.


marksierra said:

I'll just post this here.

While the gap speaks for itself, the total doesn’t. That’s a CNN count of shootings from 2009 to 2018. It tallies any shooting on school grounds, fatal and nonfatal, from elementary schools to college campuses, including parking lot robberies, gang violence and accidents.

ETA: It’s also, I believe, based on media reports, so it’s hard to say how thoroughly CNN was able to scour international news for the kinds of shootings it found in local American coverage.


In the future I suggest all similar graphs simply insert the phrase "ungodly sh!t-ton" instead of a number.

That should cover it.


Seems like the timing is perfect for another youth led march. Adults are too dug in. Maybe it will capture the attention of mothers and fathers.

Perhaps people have become lazy about physically showing up. We foolishly feel we accomplish the same things by tap dancing across our keyboards. 

I thought all of my outrage would be focused in the next few weeks on the overturning of Roe V Wade but I'm feeling that the issue is already in the rear view mirror.



I know you’re probably seeing a lot of depressing stats now; probably overwhelming. BBC published this in an article on the shooting a few hours ago:

“Guns overtook car crashes to become the leading cause of death for US children and teenagers in 2020, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last month.

On Monday, an FBI report found that "active shooter" rampage attacks have doubled since the coronavirus began in 2020.”  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61573377 

The article also said there had been 26 school shootings last year. One of their articles (can’t remember if it’s this one) seemed to indicate that already this year nearly as many. 

The Guardian linked to an NPR article  https://www.npr.org/2022/05/24/1101050970/2022-school-shootings-so-far   quoting Education Week tracking school shootings, (27 this year acc to them) and the Gun Violence Archive. The latter has counted 212 mass shootings so far this year, https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

DaveSchmidt said:

While the gap speaks for itself, the total doesn’t. That’s a CNN count of shootings from 2009 to 2018. It tallies any shooting on school grounds, fatal and nonfatal, from elementary schools to college campuses, including parking lot robberies, gang violence and accidents.

ETA: It’s also, I believe, based on media reports, so it’s hard to say how thoroughly CNN was able to scour international news for the kinds of shootings it found in local American coverage.


Its so disgusting. Republicans scaring with their CRT bs while children are being slaughtered.

So, what is their answer to the slaughter of the children? The usual? Thoughts and prayers? Lets arm the teachers? Give the kids bulletproof backpacks?

Parents voting Republican because of CRT are fools.

Sickening.

As for the Republican senators:

“I mean, our job is not to send thoughts and prayers, our job is to pass laws,” Murphy, who witnessed Sandy Hook’s pain, told reporters at the Capitol. “So if you think the beginning and end of your responsibility after a mass shooting is to sympathize with the victims and the families, then you know, why are you in the Senate? Why ask for this job?”

And T****, Cruz and Abbot to speak at NRA meeting in Houston in a few days!  Will all three show up?

I think the whole good guy with a gun premise is pretty much shot.  Arming teachers is stupid.

Can we scale back on the military weapons - reduce magazine size - improve background checks - eliminate the gun show loop hole and raise the age to 21?

And yes, many will say - these measures wouldn't have prevent X - but at least it would be a step forward.


Go Beto!

All the Dems in Congress should show up on Texas doorstep.


People can protest in Texas until the cows come home and it will achieve absolutely nothing.

If protesters really wanted to affect change they would camp out in front of the homes of Joe Manchin and the Arizona Train Wreck to demand that they suspend the filibuster and put an end to this nonsense.


Worth reading the entire thread.


GoSlugs said:

People can protest in Texas until the cows come home and it will achieve absolutely nothing.

If protesters really wanted to affect change they would camp out in front of the homes of Joe Manchin and the Arizona Train Wreck to demand that they suspend the filibuster and put an end to this nonsense.

You're assuming Manchin and Train Wreck care. Don't count on it.


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