Rumors of Dumping Trump

Besides this on how much longer his campaign staff stays, there is growing buzz that senior Republicans are discussing replacing HIM!

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/how-long-until-trump-fires-his-campaign?r=d1f2l&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Anthony Scaramucci says there's a 40% chance of him dropping out.

Scaramucci also says he called the Biden/Harris switch. Don't know if that's true or not.

I’m not sure which would be a bigger disaster for the GOP chances at the White House. 

Firing and replacing his campaign staff less than three months before the election?  How is a new group of people supposed to come in and establish a strategy in that short of a time?  I read an article about the challenges for the Harris campaign in changing the candidate this late in the game. I can’t imagine a whole new staff being able to get their plan together especially with Mr “You’re Fired” looming over them constantly.

I’m not saying that he wouldn’t try this.  But what a flagrant own-goal that would be. 

I couldn’t read most of the Bulwark article because I’m not a subscriber. Does it really talk about the GOP dumping Trump right now and replacing him on the ticket?  That seems like when a bad baseball team trades away all their most expensive players when it’s clear they’re not going anywhere that season. Try to dump the costly ineffective players and allow the team to rebuild. The problem with that analogy is that Trump would try to burn everything down on his way out. Lawsuits in every state where his name was struck from the ballot. Lawsuits against the RNC. Rallies for a write-in campaign. Attacks on any Republican candidate for any office anywhere that didn’t stand up to support him. 

I think any talk like this ignores just how dangerously close we are to a second Trump presidency. Unless it’s  a ruse calculated to knock him further off balance. Start rumors that Trump wants to clean house, maybe some campaign staffers bail while they can find work elsewhere. Start rumors that GOP leaders are trying to dump the Orange clown and he starts lashing out at the party. I could get behind that strategy. 

drummerboy said:

Anthony Scaramucci says there's a 40% chance of him dropping out.

Scaramucci also says he called the Biden/Harris switch. Don't know if that's true or not.

Again, maybe the mooch is trying to get under his skin. 

It’s easy to say there’s a 40% chance something will happen. If it happens people think you’re a genius. If it doesn’t, people forget about it. 

I noticed a distinct slurring of speech and salvia sloshing around in his mouth last night that seemed to indicate a physical deterioration that I hadn't noticed before. He's been able to avoid it for years, but his age, physical makeup, diet and lifestyle make him a great candidate for a life-threatening or disabling health crisis.

Well, one thing is for sure and that is that Trump will not ride off gracefully into the sunset.  Say what you want about Biden, but at the end of the day, he is a team player.  

paulsurovell said:

I noticed a distinct slurring of speech and salvia sloshing around in his mouth last night that seemed to indicate a physical deterioration that I hadn't noticed before. He's been able to avoid it for years, but his age, physical makeup, diet and lifestyle make him a great candidate for a life-threatening or disabling health crisis.

Some people I followed on Twitter (I broke up with that platform a few months ago) were noticing some of this stuff during his NY trial.

I wouldn't be shocked if this happens. 

From the GOP's standpoint, they see what moving on from a bad candidate has done for the Democrats, and the more they see of Trump, the more they must pine for their own reboot. A hypothetical ticket like Haley-Youngkin would immediately reset the race.

From Trump's standpoint, probably the biggest ignominy ever would be to lose to a woman of color, so if he knows deep down he isn't going to win, I can see him citing some BS excuse to withdraw in a way that allows him to save face and still trot out the usual braggadocio that he won or would have won.  

40% sounds about right to me.

Smedley said:

I wouldn't be shocked if this happens. 

From the GOP's standpoint, they see what moving on from a bad candidate has done for the Democrats, and the more they see of Trump, the more they must pine for their own reboot. A hypothetical ticket like Haley-Youngkin would immediately reset the race.

From Trump's standpoint, probably the biggest ignominy ever would be to lose to a woman of color, so if he knows deep down he isn't going to win, I can see him citing some BS excuse to withdraw in a way that allows him to save face and still trot out the usual braggadocio that he won or would have won.  

40% sounds about right to me.

Serious question - can you think of a single instance where Trump had dismounted gracefully?

Things never happen until they happen. Biden's exit so close to the election was an unprecedented event. 

mrincredible said:

I’m not sure which would be a bigger disaster for the GOP chances at the White House. 

Firing and replacing his campaign staff less than three months before the election?  How is a new group of people supposed to come in and establish a strategy in that short of a time?  I read an article about the challenges for the Harris campaign in changing the candidate this late in the game. I can’t imagine a whole new staff being able to get their plan together especially with Mr “You’re Fired” looming over them constantly.

I’m not saying that he wouldn’t try this.  But what a flagrant own-goal that would be. 

I couldn’t read most of the Bulwark article because I’m not a subscriber. Does it really talk about the GOP dumping Trump right now and replacing him on the ticket?  That seems like when a bad baseball team trades away all their most expensive players when it’s clear they’re not going anywhere that season. Try to dump the costly ineffective players and allow the team to rebuild. The problem with that analogy is that Trump would try to burn everything down on his way out. Lawsuits in every state where his name was struck from the ballot. Lawsuits against the RNC. Rallies for a write-in campaign. Attacks on any Republican candidate for any office anywhere that didn’t stand up to support him. 

I think any talk like this ignores just how dangerously close we are to a second Trump presidency. Unless it’s  a ruse calculated to knock him further off balance. Start rumors that Trump wants to clean house, maybe some campaign staffers bail while they can find work elsewhere. Start rumors that GOP leaders are trying to dump the Orange clown and he starts lashing out at the party. I could get behind that strategy. 

no the Bulwark explores the firing of staff, the dumping more rumor than substance at the moment!

There are millions of Trump supporters who would never ever vote for Haley.

A subset of them won’t vote for anyone but Trump. Take away the Trump loyalists and I don’t care who your GOP candidate is. Plus you have to contend with the fact that the Republican nomination is signed and sealed. I think delivery is still a couple of weeks from now, but the party would have to get their **** together tout de suite, as the French say. 

My guess is Trump rides this mess out and puts his faith in post-election legal challenges. Or outright violence. 

Smedley said:

Things never happen until they happen. Biden's exit so close to the election was an unprecedented event. 

But not an inconceivable event. 

Trump voluntarily dropping out? Inconceivable. 

drummerboy said:

Anthony Scaramucci says there's a 40% chance of him dropping out.

Scaramucci also says he called the Biden/Harris switch. Don't know if that's true or not.

This was great watching. Funny and insightful. Nutty? Yes. But an alternative must-watch for all voters. 

Thanks for posting.  

One key difference between Biden dropping out and a hypothetical replacement of Trump is that Biden was never the official nominee, whereas Trump is. IANAL, so don't know how all that would shake out, but it is a material difference.

mrincredible said:

Smedley said:

Things never happen until they happen. Biden's exit so close to the election was an unprecedented event. 

But not an inconceivable event. 

Trump voluntarily dropping out? Inconceivable. 

I don't know about inconceivable but yeah, a 40% chance is high. On second thought it's probably more like 20%.

The Mooch hates Trump and lives to break his balls so he is motivated to upsell any negativity around his campaign. 

PVW said:

One key difference between Biden dropping out and a hypothetical replacement of Trump is that Biden was never the official nominee, whereas Trump is. IANAL, so don't know how all that would shake out, but it is a material difference.

Yup.

I believe the final deadline for most states to put a name on the ballot is early September. It came up when Biden withdrew. But the Democrats still have a formal process to select their nominee. The GOP did theirs already. How would they justify whichever person they chose?

I can’t find anything about what would happen if he dropped out of the race. All the articles I’ve found are about Biden dropping out. Nothing about Trump dropping out post-nomination. 

His bone spurs might suddenly start acting up….

mrincredible said:

drummerboy said:

Anthony Scaramucci says there's a 40% chance of him dropping out.

Scaramucci also says he called the Biden/Harris switch. Don't know if that's true or not.

Again, maybe the mooch is trying to get under his skin. 

It’s easy to say there’s a 40% chance something will happen. If it happens people think you’re a genius. If it doesn’t, people forget about it. 

1/2 of America wanted the Harris/Biden switch, so I don’t think the Mooch was alone in his prediction.

Doesn't Trump need to stay in the race for his chance to get the "get out of jail free" card?

yahooyahoo said:

1/2 of America wanted the Harris/Biden switch, so I don’t think the Mooch was alone in his prediction.

I don't think that's correct. Are you saying that before Biden left, 50% were saying they wanted Harris to replace him? I don't recall that. Could be I guess, but my recollection is that Harris wasn't polling very well a couple of months ago.

drummerboy said:

I don't think that's correct. Are you saying that before Biden left, 50% were saying they wanted Harris to replace him? I don't recall that. Could be I guess, but my recollection is that Harris wasn't polling very well a couple of months ago.

The 40% is Scaramucci’s estimate of likelihood that Trump would quit. 

Lots of polls showed a majority of democrats thought  Biden should step down, but not specifically that Harris should step up. 

Morganna said:

Doesn't Trump need to stay in the race for his chance to get the "get out of jail free" card?

isn’t it funny that the felon is going to have to face another female prosecutor who happens to be black?  His fate has been sealed…

Republicans will have a serious problem with the MAGA base going forward.

paulsurovell said:

I noticed a distinct slurring of speech and salvia sloshing around in his mouth last night that seemed to indicate a physical deterioration that I hadn't noticed before. He's been able to avoid it for years, but his age, physical makeup, diet and lifestyle make him a great candidate for a life-threatening or disabling health crisis.

He's been like this for > 1 year. The paid crowds love it.

dave said:

Republicans will have a serious problem with the MAGA base going forward.

Tea party.

dave said:

Republicans will have a serious problem with the MAGA base going forward.

Agreed. There are millions of people who are motivated to get out and vote for HIM. 

dave said:

paulsurovell said:

I noticed a distinct slurring of speech and salvia sloshing around in his mouth last night that seemed to indicate a physical deterioration that I hadn't noticed before. He's been able to avoid it for years, but his age, physical makeup, diet and lifestyle make him a great candidate for a life-threatening or disabling health crisis.

He's been like this for > 1 year. The paid crowds love it.

He has been a walking time bomb for several years, but his minions couldn't care less about his health (mental or physical).  They believe he is "strong."

Morganna said:

Doesn't Trump need to stay in the race for his chance to get the "get out of jail free" card?

yes