So When Will We Get to Recession Again?

the pattern of tax cuts for the rich, cutting benefits to most people, the damage Trump is doing to trade- if history is the best predictor, how long do we have before we see a repeat of what has happened over the past 30 years? I’m feeling this one will be more like the one in the late 80s/early 90s and not quite like the banking/ financial implosion a decade ago but bad enough to wipe out 401k s and get everyone upside down on their mortgage again. 


Predictions on timing? I think barring impeachment proceedings, we probably have another year of a moderately solid wave but then when?


I agree with you re: timing--about another year of strength then higher interest rates and tariffs start to create problems. Doesn't seem like China will back down. Chinese media yesterday put out a piece talking about how Apple's profits come on the backs of Chinese workers (ie if phones were made in U.S., they would be much more expensive and profits lower)...Their view on what is "fair" about international trade is a lot different than Trump's. 


I hope that it is before the next presidential election.


I’m thinking later 2019 as well. 


and what will you do to prepare? I’ll likeky shift my 401k to something less risky. I’m at the point where I’d like to sell my house in about 5-7 years so this next potential crisis really concerns me about that. If I were 2-3 years away, I’d seriously consider selling and renting an apartment


PetuniaBird said:
I hope that it is before the next presidential election.

Yes, 2019, when the Democrats have the house.

Trump will tell all that only he can save us. We'll also be told "notice how the recession started after those Democrats took the house".

Yes, those Democrats, those Democrats, impeding and ruining our Make America Great Again recovery. His base will eat it up.


PetuniaBird said:
I hope that it is before the next presidential election.

Yes, 2019, when the Democrats have the house.
Trump will tell all that only he can save us. We'll also be told "notice how the recession started after those Democrats took the house".
Yes, those Democrats, those Democrats, impeding and ruining our Make America Great Again recovery. His base will eat it up.

LOL


 


Look at when corporate debt maturities are coming due.


how does one look at something like that?


Watch the yield curve.  It’s been a good predictor of recession.


Well the Turkish lira just lost 14% in a single day.   Who has exposure to Turkish debt?   


dave said:
Well the Turkish lira just lost 14% in a single day.   Who has exposure to Turkish debt?   


ECB concerns grow over EU banks’ Turkey exposure as lira slides

https://www.ft.com/content/51311230-9be7-11e8-9702-5946bae86e6d


iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF EUFN:NASDAQ


Quote Information Table

Last PriceToday's ChangeBid/SizeAsk/SizeSpreadToday's Volume
$19.975-0.65 (-3.13%)$19.97/32$19.98/17$0.01 (0.05%)476,402 Above Avg.





Department of Commerce definitions ---

recession: decline in gross national produce that lasts over a 6 month period.

depression: Same, but for 36 months.


mrincredible said:

dave said:

2019

 Um.

 

Only off by a year.  




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