NJ's moment of reckoning is approaching

For years I and others have pointed out here that data from moving companies and others indicated that people were leaving NJ in large numbers. The retort always was that NJ's population was growing, which was correct except that the growth was well below average for the country. 

Well now there has been a decline in the population of NJ if continued that will set off a downward spiral (think Detroit but it is not likely to get that bad) 

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/worry_as_census_says_njs_population_shrank_for_the_first_time_in_years.html

From the article:

Experts were wary of making too much of the figure, noting that it was an estimate and only a slight decrease, but said it points to a broader trend -- New Jersey isn't growing. 

The article also says "With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey's growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. "

Well, we know the immigration piece is being slowed from the WH.  "Thanks Trump". 

Interesting comment on where growth is occurring in NJ. Based on towns like Maplewood and South Orange adding substantial housing capacity near the train line, this sounds logical.

"For a long time, we had a lot of automobile-centric growth. Rail now determines ecomic opportunity. That's a fundamental change," Hughes said. 

sprout said:

The article also says "With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey's growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. "

Well, we know the immigration piece is being slowed from the WH.  "Thanks Trump". 

Really? How? You do know that a restraining order on the Muslim country ban was upheld by a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.   What other legislation has been passed? Immigration policy hasn't changed since the previous administration.

lord_pabulum said:

sprout said:

The article also says "With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey's growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. "

Well, we know the immigration piece is being slowed from the WH.  "Thanks Trump". 

Really? How? You do know that a restraining order on the Muslim country ban was upheld by a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.   What other legislation has been passed? Immigration policy hasn't changed since the previous administration.

Applicable policy may not changed, but I believe that immigration is down because potential immigrants are (rightly) worried about it and less inclined to come.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/world/americas/honduras-migration-border-wall.html?mcubz=3

"While some of Mr. Trump’s most ambitious plans to tighten the border are still a long way off, particularly his campaign pledge to build a massive wall, his hard-line approach to immigration already seems to have led to sharp declines in the flow of migrants from Central America bound for the United States."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-deportation-orders-trump-20170808-story.html

"Federal immigration courts ordered 57,069 people to leave the United States in the first six months of the Trump administration, up nearly 31 percent over the same period last year, the Justice Department announced Tuesday.

Additionally, 16,058 people prevailed in their immigration cases, or had them closed, allowing them to stay in the United States, according to the data, which tallied orders issued from Feb. 1 to July 31. That total marked a 20.7 percent drop from the 20,255 immigrants who prevailed at the same time last year."

lord_pabulum said:

sprout said:

The article also says "With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey's growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. "

Well, we know the immigration piece is being slowed from the WH.  "Thanks Trump". 

Really? How? You do know that a restraining order on the Muslim country ban was upheld by a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.   What other legislation has been passed? Immigration policy hasn't changed since the previous administration.

Trump's focus on the wall with Mexico/increasing border security, the travel ban, and threats/acts of deportation and detainment of immigrants already here, including Dreamers, are policies focused on reducing numbers of immigrants. Is there an alternate interpretation/outcome to these policies that I'm missing?

In NJ, I know several immigrant families (whose children attended school with my children) who fled the US (specifically NJ) for Canada.  The purpose of the policies seemed clear enough to these immigrants to encourage them drop everything in the middle of the school year, and leave for Canada.

I agree 100% that Trump's immigration policy and tone will have a significant negative impact on NJ but will point out that the time frame in the article was before Trumps election and when it seemed very unlikely he would be elected. 

Even if New Jersey's population growth were still +0.1% a year like it was in 2015 it would still mean that the "moment of reckoning is approaching," because New Jersey needs strong economic growth to be able to pay its debts.  

Population growth is only a proxy for economic growth.  A lack of population growth, by itself, is not a problem; the problem is the lack of population growth when the state is facing a tidal wave of debt.

Also, I think Hughes and Whiten (who for some reason is constantly quoted on NJ's economy even though he's not an economist) exaggerate NJ's suburban problem.

Many economically booming places and states are automobile-centric.  Research Triangle, Utah, Texas, and Florida have some of the best economies in the United States and they are not PT places.  Even Silicon Valley, while completely Democratic and near San Francisco, is suburban.  

And actually, the fastest-growing counties in the US are low-density.

I have some respect for Hughes, but Jon Whiten is a de facto NJEA employee (the NJEA funds the NJPP).  He will do any flip, stretch any factoid, and twist anything to avoid saying that taxes do anything to hurt NJ.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-shift-to-the-suburbs-sped-up-last-year/

yes, everything is still the same, blah blah blah

That's why the number of refugees fleeing the U.S. into Canada is at an all-time high.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3677129/asylum-seeker-numbers-quebec-canada/

The RCMP intercepted close to 3,000 people jumping the Canada-U.S. border into Quebec in July – a 284 per cent increase compared to one month earlier, and a more than 1,000 per cent increase than in January, according to Citizenship and Immigration Canada.

To say nothing about the double-downed strong-arm tactics of ICE (our own gestapo, and apparently beyond the rule of law) who seem to take great pleasure in breaking up families or trapping people when they go to court.

But yeah, nothing to see here. Move along, move along.

lord_pabulum said:

sprout said:

The article also says "With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey's growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. "

Well, we know the immigration piece is being slowed from the WH.  "Thanks Trump". 

Really? How? You do know that a restraining order on the Muslim country ban was upheld by a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.   What other legislation has been passed? Immigration policy hasn't changed since the previous administration.

sprout said:

lord_pabulum said:

sprout said:

The article also says "With a historically low birth rate, New Jersey's growth has hinged upon immigration for several years. "

Well, we know the immigration piece is being slowed from the WH.  "Thanks Trump". 

Really? How? You do know that a restraining order on the Muslim country ban was upheld by a panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.   What other legislation has been passed? Immigration policy hasn't changed since the previous administration.

Trump's focus on the wall with Mexico/increasing border security, the travel ban, and threats/acts of deportation and detainment of immigrants already here, including Dreamers, are policies focused on reducing numbers of immigrants. Is there an alternate interpretation/outcome to these policies that I'm missing?


In NJ, I know several immigrant families (whose children attended school with my children) who fled the US (specifically NJ) for Canada.  The purpose of the policies seemed clear enough to these immigrants to encourage them drop everything in the middle of the school year, and leave for Canada.

Yes, his rhetoric rather than 'focus' is just rhetoric.  If the immigrant families you speak of were here illegally then they will be in Canada illegally.   If they were here legally you will have to explain better their need to flee.  Article on  Canada's immigration barriers.

Truth in Accounting releases yet another report putting NJ as the country's most indebted state.

I hear lots of people say "population stagnation/loss doesn't matter, we're still the country's most densely populated state!" but NJ needs to grow its way out of the crisis and the lack of population growth is both a cause of our economic difficulties and a reflection of it.

http://www.truthinaccounting.org/library/doclib/FINAL-FSOS-BOOKLET.pdf