How to cancel an election/Trump's plan if he loses

This is a twitter thread from journalist Kurt Eichenwald. Sobering, to say the least.

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1190376332259139584

1. For those who don’t understand

the fragility of American democracy in the hands of an unscrupulous

autocrat - a scenario never imagined possible by the Founders under our

Constituion - the cancellation of elections is quite simple and arguably

legal. Which is why...

2...I fear for 2020. It all comes down to presidential emergency powers.

They are poorly defined in the Constituion and under law. They are

enormous and Trump clearly has been told that - remember how trump keeps

saying he can do *anything* under the Constituion. Back when....

3...there was Japanese internment, Justice Robert Jackson wrote of this

power in his dissent that it “lies about like a loaded weapon, ready for

the hand of any authority that can bring forward a plausible claim of

an urgent need.” We have already seen Trump do this without...

4...consequence to override congress to pay for his wall. Nothing can

stop him because he said “emergency” and there is nothing to stop him.

So, it’s October 25, 2020. Polls show that trump is going to lose in a

landslide. He announces a national emergency - we have evidence...

5...”that millions of illegal aliens are conspiring to vote and

undermine our democracy. Therefore, I am declaring a national emergency,

suspending elections until this corruption is weeded out.” And that’s

it. People can sue, but his powers are broad enough and his corrupt...

6...judiciary would have to knock it down. And even if it did, there is

nothing in the Constituion that says he has to abide by the ruling. Just

the courts own interpretations. He can argue that Marbury v Madison

does not apply in emergencies, and who can stop him? Ok, now...

7....suppose the people take up arms or Does anything but acquiesce.

Trump can declare this an insurrection amd suspenx habeas corpus,

meaning they can lock up anyone they want. Lincoln did this and while it

stretches the Constituion - the section on habeas corpus appears

under..

8...article one, but never says who has the power to suspend and Trump

can simply say, as Lincoln did, I have that power. He also has the

authority to shut down the internet or all communications. While

technically the electors are supposed to cast ballots, they can’t

without...

9...an election victor. And without an electoral vote, The president cannot be removed.

This is all legal. And does ANYONE believe, given he know this, that

Trump won’t CONSIDER doing it? A man who publicly stated in 2016 that he

might not accept the outcome of the election...

10...who, with the approval of the GOP, declared his opponents as

traitors, demanded the imprisonments of political adversaries, declared

the press to be the enemy of the people, has spoken longingly of never

leaving office, who is besties with every autocrat and hates every...

11...democracy. Yes, as Justice Jackson said, the president - in this

case trump - has a loaded gun and we have to simply trust that he won’t

use it or that the republicans will join democrats to stop him. And I do

not believe for one second that...

12...they will say whatever rationale for the “emergency” that trump

cooks up is bogus. Just like they talked about evil hordes who didn’t

exist coming into the United States, they have been saying those same

hordes are voting. And they’ll say it when Trump suspends elections...

13...so FOR GODS SAKE stop the nonsense of raging over whether there is a

public option or Medicare for all as a primary voting issue, or whether

someone is a “corporate democrat” or a “socialist”. None of that

matters this time. We are IN this position because idiots...

14...did not recognize what was at stake in 2016, played silly games

about “both sides are equally bad.” This is the same game that was

played in the German federal elections in 1932, where people voting for

the “can’t win” candidate gave enormous power to Hitler...

15...just three years later, hitler declared a national emergency,

dissolved the legislature and called for new elections. And soon after

that, the “protest candidate and his supporters were locked up.

Can’t happen here? I never thought it could. Then again, I never thought...

16...that any political party would ever support an imperial executive

and usurpation of power by a president declaring he is above the law.

The GOP has shown that, if they can make an argument, no matter how irrational or false, they will justify anything....

17...the bottom line: bad stuff could be coming. It is not outside the

realm of possibility. It would not even be illegal or unconstitutional.

And it will end the great American experiment in democracy. But rich

people will do very very well.

I think that's an extreme "parade of horribles" set out there.  Off the top of my head - the election is actually 50 state elections, along with the District of Columbia.  Each state decides how it proceeds with its election.  Even during the Civil War, the election of 1864 was held in those states which were not in rebellion.

I could see many if not most states going ahead with their elections, as planned.  The state vs. federal authority question alone would tie up any court arguments Trump wanted to make. Any state that cancels its election, risks having no electors chosen by the date the Electoral College votes are to be counted.

nohero said:

I think that's an extreme "parade of horribles" set out there.  Off the top of my head - the election is actually 50 state elections, along with the District of Columbia.  Each state decides how it proceeds with its election.  Even during the Civil War, the election of 1864 was held in those states which were not in rebellion.

I could see many if not most states going ahead with their elections, as planned.  The state vs. federal authority question alone would tie up any court arguments Trump wanted to make. Any state that cancels its election, risks having no electors chosen by the date the Electoral College votes are to be counted.

 I do think, though, that Trump will spin a 2020 election loss as a "coup" and an "illegitimate attempt to overturn the will of the people." I mean, elections are right up there with emoluments as phony constitutional clauses.

PVW said:

 I do think, though, that Trump will spin a 2020 election loss as a "coup" and an "illegitimate attempt to overturn the will of the people." I mean, elections are right up there with emoluments as phony constitutional clauses.

 You can't go wrong making a bet on that.  If he loses, let him whine all he wants, but lock everything down so he can't do any real damage before his term runs out.

nohero said:

I think that's an extreme "parade of horribles" set out there.  Off the top of my head - the election is actually 50 state elections, along with the District of Columbia.  Each state decides how it proceeds with its election.  Even during the Civil War, the election of 1864 was held in those states which were not in rebellion.

I could see many if not most states going ahead with their elections, as planned.  The state vs. federal authority question alone would tie up any court arguments Trump wanted to make. Any state that cancels its election, risks having no electors chosen by the date the Electoral College votes are to be counted.

Yeah, but who controls what happens with the electoral college? Wouldn't that be a Federal responsibility? Suppose it's prevented from meeting?

drummerboy said:

Yeah, but who controls what happens with the electoral college? Wouldn't that be a Federal responsibility? Suppose it's prevented from meeting?

 Electors cast their votes in their respective states.  The results go to Congress, and are "opened" and counted there.

nohero said:

drummerboy said:

Yeah, but who controls what happens with the electoral college? Wouldn't that be a Federal responsibility? Suppose it's prevented from meeting?

 Electors cast their votes in their respective states.  The results go to Congress, and are "opened" and counted there.

 But Congress certifies the results, right? Election not over til that happens.

I found this:

Procedure

Since the mid-20th century, on January 6 at 1:00 pm before a Joint Session of Congress, the Vice President opens the votes from each state in alphabetical order. He passes the votes to four tellers—two from the House and two from the Senate—who announce the results. House tellers include one Representative from each party and are appointed by the Speaker. At the end of the count, the Vice President then declares the name of the next President.

Suppose Trump forbids Pence to participate? Then what?

I mean, I don't want to get all tin-foil hatty on this, but we're living in bizarre times. And I have no problem believing that Congressional Republicans would go along with this.

More likely, but still disturbing scenario, is Trump refusing to recognize the results and filing a bunch of lawsuits. Republican state officials refusing to certify results. Basically, Florida 2000 turned up to a higher volume. Democratic nominee eventually prevails, but half the country already declaring her illegitimate before she even takes office (McConnell's anti-Obama campaign, dialed up several notches). It'll all make the GOP nihilism of the Obama era look like an exercise in civil comity by comparison.

I'm pretty sure Eichenwald rode the short bus to school

terp said:

I'm pretty sure Eichenwald rode the short bus to school

 I honestly can't think of a more idiotic comment.

It was a joke.  But Eichenwald is dangerously stupid.  The most idiotic thing is taking his twitter thread seriously.  You have to be either completely crazy or completely brain dead to take that nonsense seriously.

LOL, when is ANY of this stuff going to happen? 

What has he said that's stupid?

The most stupid thing, even more stupid than the above, is his attacks on children when he has no idea what he is talking about.  He is a moron.  

drummerboy said:

terp said:

I'm pretty sure Eichenwald rode the short bus to school

 I honestly can't think of a more idiotic comment.

terp said:

It was a joke.  

terp said:

The most stupid thing, even more stupid than the above, is his attacks on children when he has no idea what he is talking about.  He is a moron.  

 Attacks on children? What?

Other examples of this genius getting his facts straight and not jumping to ridiculous conclusions here.  

terp said:

Other examples of this genius getting his facts straight and not jumping to ridiculous conclusions here.  

 Seriously - that's your thing about Eichenwald?

someone else has a theory on how Trump can game the election

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

drummerboy said:

someone else has a theory on how Trump can game the election

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

 not only do I believe that is possible, there is plenty of evidence that is exactly the plan Trump and the Republicans are laying out.  Unless Biden wins an overwhelming landslide, we are looking at almost that exact scenario this fall.

ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

someone else has a theory on how Trump can game the election

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

 not only do I believe that is possible, there is plenty of evidence that is exactly the plan Trump and the Republicans are laying out.  Unless Biden wins an overwhelming landslide, we are looking at almost that exact scenario this fall.

 Then let’s make sure he wins in a landslide

And by the way, we should not bring a knife to a gunfight with these Republicans anymore. They stole the 2000 Presidential Election. They stole Merrick Garlands Supreme Court sweat, they stole countless house and state seats through gerrymandering, when  democrat wins Governor they will quickly strip away powers, they will suppress the vote at every opportunity, etc.

We have options too though: statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, increase nr of seats on Supreme Court, get rid of Electoral College, just to name a few. Will take time, but we should go on offense for a change.

basil said:

 Then let’s make sure he wins in a landslide

 tell that to the people in Florida. And Iowa. And Arizona. 

ml1 said:

basil said:

 Then let’s make sure he wins in a landslide

 tell that to the people in Florida. And Iowa. And Arizona. 

 You can actually do that. Their is outreach to voters in those States. There will be opportunities to send letters and postcards ad make phone calls. There are such opportunities right know with respect to voter registration.

All of the above scenarios are horrid but I'm hoping that if he loses, a majority of Republican politicians will breath a sigh of relief and get him to leave. A Nixon moment.

Morganna said:

All of the above scenarios are horrid but I'm hoping that if he loses, a majority of Republican politicians will breath a sigh of relief and get him to leave. A Nixon moment.

 I would put that probability at pretty close to zero.  The Republicans in the House and Senate had the opportunity to rid the country of Trump this winter and did nothing.  Actually worse than nothing.  They opposed impeachment and removal.

Let’s just have the election rather than reflect on impeachment. As crappy as 2020 has been with COVID and racial injustices, both have shone a light on how sh*tty a president trump is and hopefully that will result in him not being re-elected. The further the dumb and botched impeachment recedes into the rear-view mirror by November, and the more it is forgotten, the better.

If trump loses it will be despite democrats, rather than because of democrats. The Dems can then thank their lucky stars that Derek chauvin and the guy who ate the bat in China were things this year.

How do you account for the "Blue Wave" in 2018?

Many people did not need the incompetent response to COVID 19 and the images of Police murders to know that Trump was a bum. But the more the merrier.

Smedley said:

Let’s just have the election rather than reflect on impeachment. As crappy as 2020 has been with COVID and racial injustices, both have shone a light on how sh*tty a president trump is and hopefully that will result in him not being re-elected. The further the dumb and botched impeachment recedes into the rear-view mirror by November, and the more it is forgotten, the better.

If trump loses it will be despite democrats, rather than because of democrats. The Dems can then thank their lucky stars that Derek chauvin and the guy who ate the bat in China were things this year.

 yes, we should all be thankful for a pandemic and a guy murdered by cops. 

STANV said:

How do you account for the "Blue Wave" in 2018?

Many people did not need the incompetent response to COVID 19 and the images of Police murders to know that Trump was a bum. But the more the merrier.

 The "blue wave" of 2018 was what it was, but as recently as Feb/Mar 2020 Trump's approval rate was up to 45-46%, he had >60% approval on the economy which was humming along, and he was likely to win re-election. It wasn't until recently that he went from likely to unlikely. (Which of course could still change back again.) 

STANV said:

How do you account for the "Blue Wave" in 2018?

Many people did not need the incompetent response to COVID 19 and the images of Police murders to know that Trump was a bum. But the more the merrier.

the problem in 2020 isn't that there won't be a comparable wave of Democratic voters, it's that even if Trump is voted out, does he really leave office without a legal challenge to the results?  So the question is -- do we believe the Republican Party is going to be complicit in any Trump scheme to declare this year's vote invalid?  I think a person would be awfully naive not to be concerned about the scenario laid out in that Newsweek article.  Anything short of a 10-point national vote margin for Biden, and 350+ electoral votes, and I'd be surprised if Trump didn't sue in a bunch of states because he claimed their voting was "rigged."