Hot Stove League 2015
I am looking for the Red Sox to be really active this year. Their new top dog, Dave Dombrowski, is known for wheeling and dealing, and they have finished in last three of the last four years (and won a WS in the one year). So, you have a top guy with no commitment to current players, a bunch of good prospects, a few high priced veterans (Sandoval and Ramirez) who might interest another team, a crappy starting rotation, and a desire to show quick improvement.
Look for a bunch of trades.
Do the Mets have any money to spend? Are they out of the Madoff hole yet? Any big contracts coming off the books?
The Mets are not going to become the Yankees or Dodgers. I think money is still tight and Alderson is not that type of GM. But winning does change things and I think they will be willing to spend some money. Most likely on trying to lock up some of the pitchers.
jeffl said:
Do the Mets have any money to spend? Are they out of the Madoff hole yet? Any big contracts coming off the books?
they have approximately $94MM committed to players who are likely to be on their 25 man roster next season (arbitration outcomes estimated). If their payroll stayed flat to 2015, they have about $10MM to spend. Alderson implied that next year's payroll will be a bit higher, but didn't give hard numbers. Given what I think the big holes to fill are -- one more bullpen arm and one more bat, I think they would probably need to come up with about $20-25MM in additional payroll. I don't think that kind of spending is likely, so I suspect all they'll do is try to sign a reliever or two and a utility player, and maybe wait like they did this year to pick up a hitter at the trade deadline. My hope is that they sign Darren O'Day as a righty specialist, and re-sign Blevins as the lefty specialist. Combine them with Robles, Gomez, Gilmartin, Reed and Familia and the bullpen should be in pretty good shape. I'd like to see Kelly Johnson back as well as the lefty PH and utility infielder. Given what those players received this year (and assuming Blevins would come in lower because he spent almost the entire year on the DL), you're probably looking at roughly $7MM for the three combined.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/11/6/9679030/2016-mets-payroll-contract
15.8 million or even that neighborhood for murphy is absurd. let some other sucker pay that.
Robert_Casotto said:
15.8 million or even that neighborhood for murphy is absurd. let some other sucker pay that.
Nobody will pay that. It's all about the draft pick..
jimmurphy said:
Robert_Casotto said:Nobody will pay that. It's all about the draft pick..
15.8 million or even that neighborhood for murphy is absurd. let some other sucker pay that.
exactly. He'll get more than $15.8MM in aggregate because someone will give him $30-35MM over 3 years.
I found it interesting that Alderson is not at the GM meetings because he had to reschedule surgery...reschedule it from the original date during the playoff run...I guess he didn't even expect the team to make it through the playoffs so he scheduled surgery in October.
Some guesses:
Mets trade Wheeler for a mid-level position player.
Phillies trade their closer Giles and fill several needs out of many
Cubs break open the checkbook for another front line starter, rather than trade some of their young stud position players.
Red Sox dump Panda for almost nothing in return.
I keep looking at the bats that are available, and I don't see much for the Mets. They wont spend for a top tier hitter, and the second rate guys are not much better than what they have. The bullpen doesnt worry me. Scoring runs worries me.
Yankees get Hicks (OF) from Twinkies for Murphy (C). This looks like a great trade for both teams.
I had my doubts when Cashman snagged Gregorius--until that time he had not looked like an everyday shortstop. But clearly Cashman saw the development curve moving rapidly upwards, and Gregorius had an excellent year and should be a solid player for a few more years. Hicks looks like another young player who will continue to develop surrounded by a core of veterans.
Murphy is a good hitting and fielding catcher who will fill a real need for the Twins, and who was buried behind McCann anyway. So it was not a huge loss for the Yankees (unless McCann goes down for an extended period of time).
I may not like the Yankees as a team, but I continue to admire Brian Cashman as a GM. I wonder what comes next? Trading Gardner for a starter?
Angels get the slickest fielding shortstop in baseball! And he hits pretty well (at least he did in the NL) and is locked up for 5 years. They gave up two great pitching prospects, along with their SS Aybar. Great trade on both sides.
mfpark said:
Angels get the slickest fielding shortstop in baseball! And he hits pretty well (at least he did in the NL) and is locked up for 5 years. They gave up two great pitching prospects, along with their SS Aybar. Great trade on both sides.
apparently the Braves asked for one of the Mets' young pitchers AND Conforto for Simmons. I'm sure that Sandy appreciated the big laugh as he's recovering from surgery.
Simmons doesnt hit well. the guy's already 26 (which is old these days for former phenoms) and hit all of 4 HRs last year with a .265 BA and worse the year before. They basically are giving up on him. Maybe he hits better at the top of the halos lineup maybe not. more likely not. plus his salary balloons every year here on out from 6mm up to 15mm per when he's 31. bad player. bad contract.
I think most teams would be happy with a .265 hitting shortstop who fields like a wizard. But maybe that's just me.
I'll take alcides escobar at half, soon to be one third the price adotw.
Speaking of shortstops who are actually available, how about Ian Desmond for the Mets? I know, he had a pretty rough year at the plate, he will be 31 years old, and he will cost a draft pick and require a multi-year contract. But if he can get his bat speed back where it was just a year or so ago he could help replace the pop that will be lost when Murphy signs elsewhere.
Personally I don't think that he is a real step up from what we have, and that the big holes should be addressed first. If we had a high caliber outfielder added, I would be okay with Duda, Herrera/Tejada/Flores, and Wright in the infield.
Wright--hmmm, not sure about him anymore. I understand the emotional attachment to him, but his power is gone and his arm is shot.
I know. I agree with you but I think they are going to have to keep him because of his contract.
mfpark said:
Speaking of shortstops who are actually available, how about Ian Desmond for the Mets? I know, he had a pretty rough year at the plate, he will be 31 years old, and he will cost a draft pick and require a multi-year contract. But if he can get his bat speed back where it was just a year or so ago he could help replace the pop that will be lost when Murphy signs elsewhere.
even in a good year, Desmond's fielding was sub-par. And in '15, it was brutal (27 errors). If we want a mediocre fielding, 20 HR shortstop, we can throw Flores out there for 162 games and save $10MM a year.
I think an upgrade in defense at SS would make sense, and move Flores to 2B, where he seems to be at least average. That would give the Mets average to slightly above average infield defense, which would be an upgrade over this past season. His inability to throw to home plate notwithstanding, Duda has improved tremendously over time at 1B. There's the eyeball test, which he now passes, particularly going to his left. And there are the defensive metrics, which put Duda and Flores around average in range and dWAR. They are still improving as fielders too, so they would be fine. For a team built around pitching, they could do a lot worse than to have Lagares, Conforto, and Granderson in the OF, and a new SS added to the infield. Having Conforto and d'Arnaud for a full season might be enough of an improvement over the Mets lineup for the first half of '15 to make up for the loss of Cespedes and Murphy at the plate. Tighter infield defense and just a half a run more a game than the April-July Mets of 2015, and this team should be good enough to contend for the division title again next year.
Of course the question remains -- where do the Mets find this elusive SS who is an above average fielder and decent hitter? Apparently the Cubs are shopping Javier Baez. Would they take Zack Wheeler in return? I doubt it, because he'd be no help to them before midseason, and they're like the Mets -- win now mode. Maybe Wheeler and another pitcher who could step right in -- Niese or Verrett? Unfortunately I think it would take Matz and someone else, not Wheeler and another pitcher. But I might make that trade, given that we'll have Wheeler back by the All-Star break.
I don't think the Cubs want to help the Mets that much. They can get mid-range starters elsewhere.
The Mets are showing interest in Ben Zobrist, who can play second base and even shortstop and all three outfield positions. I think that would be a mistake, however--he is 34 years old and is going to command a multi-year deal.
mfpark said:
I don't think the Cubs want to help the Mets that much. They can get mid-range starters elsewhere.
The Mets are showing interest in Ben Zobrist, who can play second base and even shortstop and all three outfield positions. I think that would be a mistake, however--he is 34 years old and is going to command a multi-year deal.
what other team could offer the likes of a Steven Matz or a Zack Wheeler? I think teams don't want to trade within their division, but I don't see a reason not to trade within the same league. OTOH, if you're the Cubs, maybe you just open the checkbook for Price, possibly Kazmir as well, and then trade Baez for a top-tier pitching prospect for '17 or '18.
Agree that Zobrist would likely be a mistake at the price he's expected to command.
My comment about the Cubbies is because they will likely see the Mets again in a playoff soon, or at least compete closely for a wild card spot. I do see them going for Price in a big way.
On a separate topic, I see that the Braves are shopping Freeman now. I am sure that will be tempting for some teams, but I hope the Mets stay away from that temptation.
GMs report to to The Meetings in a week. The season is about to open.
Your thoughts here.