COVID-19
This just hit the news (about 12:30 pm.)
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday warned that it expects the novel coronavirus that has sparked outbreaks around the world to begin spreading at a community level in the United States, as a top official said that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.”
eta - I see that the NYT is reporting it:
Some communities like NY Chinatown and likely Flushing have high rates of illegals. When I worked there (but many years ago) Chinatown had or may still have numerous rooming houses with small hot bed rooms. The rooms, shared by two or three occupants, would be let very cheaply. They were usually out of each others way, working 12 -14 hours a day. They try to avoid government. For illness they would see discrete practitioners or herbalist.
Likely the cramped lodgings would accelerate disease contagion. Besides the desire to avoid government especially now with Trump's rigid deportation policy, I think they would try to avoid quarantine. They'd tough out. They don't want to lose weeks of income. Income needed to pay the private "debts" incurred here, to send to China and for their future. They're very hard working.
cramer said:
This just hit the news (about 12:30 pm.)
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday warned that it expects the novel coronavirus that has sparked outbreaks around the world to begin spreading at a community level in the United States, as a top official said that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.”
eta - I see that the NYT is reporting it:
Well, that sucks, especially for the elderly. If we do get hit hard be assured many needing critical care will not get it. Not enough bed space.
http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
The CDC is "asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad".
We have small backups for our prescriptions and a small stock of food, TP, gatoraid, etc on hand but does anyone know what, exactly, Americans should be doing to "prepare"?
GoSlugs said:
The CDC is "asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad".
We have small backups for our prescriptions and a small stock of food, TP, gatoraid, etc on hand but does anyone know what, exactly, Americans should be doing to "prepare"?
Get the GOP out of office so we can have competent appointed and elected officials again, and something closer to universal and affordable health care, and spending on health care infrastructure instead of stupid border walls?
mfpark said:
Get the GOP out of office so we can have competent appointed and elected officials again, and something closer to universal and affordable health care, and spending on health care infrastructure instead of stupid border walls?
I was thinking of more short term things. Will we have lockdowns? What do you need to have on hand during a lockdown? It seems to me like we ought to be thinking about this stuff.
CDC is handing Trump a way to disrupt/postpone elections later this fall (assuming the outbreak lasts that long).
HHS is cheering US “aggressive containment” without acknowledging there is very limited ability to detect/diagnose per former FDA head Scott Gottlieb (on CNBC this morning).
berkeley said:
HHS is cheering US “aggressive containment” without acknowledging there is very limited ability to detect/diagnose per former FDA head Scott Gottlieb (on CNBC this morning).
How do you contain something that is not detected until too late besides rigid isolation of everyone for 21 days whether you think they have it or not?
dave said:
And yet another reason that will spread panic and prevent people from being tested, courtesy of Republicans and their various attempts to gut the ACA:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html
Damn, do I have to move to Florida to get on such a super-cheap ACA plan?
If believable, a possibly reassuring fact from the stats in China. The fatality rate in provinces outside of Hubei is 0.16%. The fatality rate in Hubei, especially Wuhan, is what skews the death rate up. Why would it be so much wore in Hubei? Because the hospital system, not particularly good to begin with, is overwhelmed by the number of patients in the province and cannot give the severe cases adequate treatment. Laying in abed in a hospital without advanced treatment might be worse than staying home.
Meanwhile, the left hand of government doesn't know about the right hand.
jamie said:
Maybe we should start a Favorite Canned Goods thread.
I've got almost 20 cans of Progresso soups from the ShopRite Can Can sale, so I'm good.
drummerboy said:
so dave - what should we stockpile besides tp? Masks?
Surgical masks will be sold out quickly if they aren't gone already and many aren't effective if you're in a crowd, as the particles are 0.12 microns in diameter and regular surgical masks filter out particles 20 microns in diameter. But better than nothing! The n95 masks are somewhat better and full on gas masks are the best. Lots of third-party Amazon sellers and eBay sellers may be hawking counterfeit goods by this point, so maybe physical stores are your best bet. Global supply is running low and I think China makes them for 3M, so guess who has the stockpile (not that I blame them)? What is Trump's HHS Dept doing, I wonder?
Get small bottles of hand sanitizer liquid to carry with you and a few larger bottles for home.
Wash your hands frequently; refrain from touching your face.
Goal #1: Stay away from crowds and perspiring individuals.
Food: We prepare our own food whereas we used to order out or dine out 3-4 nights a week. Grocery runs during early morning hours when stores are less busy or we have groceries delivered (they leave items outside our door and text us a photo of them, so we know when they've arrived. (See goal #1)
Keep in mind 80% of those who get COVID-19 only get mild symptoms, but once you feel well again you don't have immunity and can re-acquire it. So best to avoid.
Eunice Yoon of CNBC is reporting that the Chinese government has told people shopping in supermarkets in Bejing that they have to keep five feet apart. She interviewed a young man who, like Dave, now prepares his own food - he used to eat out several times a week. He avoids going out and spends most of his time in his apartment.
"but once you feel well again you don't have immunity and can re-acquire it."
This is uncertain as far as I can tell. Thy don't know. It my be a question of how long the immunity lasts, not whether you get any at all.
I think we also have to reject the percentages of mild, severe etc. that are based on the Chinese patients. I think we will do better.
Regular face masks will help in some fashion I think. The virus needs to travel on water droplets in order to infect others. While the virus is too small on its own to be stopped by most masks, the masks will stop a lot of the liquid from your OWN sneezes and coughs, slowing transmission should you become a carrier.
I agree with Dave that we need to keep in mind that it seems like the majority of folks infected only have mild reactions--although since the virus seems to spread quickly in a population even 20% of severe cases means that health care providers will be hard pressed.
bub said:
If believable, a possibly reassuring fact from the stats in China. The fatality rate in provinces outside of Hubei is 0.16%. The fatality rate in Hubei, especially Wuhan, is what skews the death rate up. Why would it be so much wore in Hubei? Because the hospital system, not particularly good to begin with, is overwhelmed by the number of patients in the province and cannot give the severe cases adequate treatment. Laying in abed in a hospital without advanced treatment might be worse than staying home.
But in Italy the rate is 3%
A 12th person has died in Italy, authorities say. The 70-year-old
resident of Lombardy was taken to hospital in Piacenza but then was
moved to intensive care in Parma. The total number of cases in Italy is
now at 374.
Still trying to get a handle on which side of the mild/severe line "walking" pneumonia falls. That's a big deal because a significant minority of the Chinese patients developed pneumonia. Again, it would be nice to get a profile of the western, and especially U.S., patients to see the percentages. How many needed hospitalization? How many needed any kind of breathing assistance? I'm not aware of any deaths in the U.S. yet so if any of the U.S. patients needed critical care, it worked.
As of right now, the number of new coronavirus infections outside China tops those inside the country for the first time. Probably better communications and reporting helps this stat, but it's still sobering.
drummerboy said:
Meanwhile, the left hand of government doesn't know about the right hand.
Expected. Elect a clown, you get a circus.
bub said:
Still trying to get a handle on which side of the mild/severe line "walking" pneumonia falls. That's a big deal because a significant minority of the Chinese patients developed pneumonia. Again, it would be nice to get a profile of the western, and especially U.S., patients to see the percentages. How many needed hospitalization? How many needed any kind of breathing assistance? I'm not aware of any deaths in the U.S. yet so if any of the U.S. patients needed critical care, it worked.
The only American death I know of is a patient in Wuhan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
You know what was bad optics? That dopey senior Iranian health minister standing on stage sweating and coughing without a mask on. The next day they announced that he has the disease. Like a poster boy for countries lacking adequate health protocols.
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And yet another reason that will spread panic and prevent people from being tested, courtesy of Republicans and their various attempts to gut the ACA:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/health-care/article240476806.html